| 气候变化与人类活动对能源型地区植被固碳量影响及驱动分析：以山西省为例 |
| 摘要点击 490 全文点击 23 投稿时间：2024-11-05 修订日期：2025-03-25 |
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| 中文关键词 植被固碳量（VCS） 能源型地区 人类活动 气候变化 多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR） |
| 英文关键词 vegetation carbon sequestration（VCS） energy-intensive regions human activities climate change multi-scale geographically weighted regression （MGWR） |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260218 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 植被固碳量（VCS）是评估生态系统碳汇能力的重要指标，能源型地区矿业开发与城市化显著加剧了植被动态变化的复杂性，使得量化气候变化与人类活动对VCS的贡献率成为研究重点. 基于MOD17A3H NPP数据、矿点数据和气象数据等，利用光合作用方程计算VCS，结合Thornthwaite Memorial模型和趋势分析量化气候变化与人类活动对能源型地区VCS的影响；使用时空聚集聚类密度指数（D-STAC）和多尺度地理加权回归模型，在像元尺度上探究VCS的时空演变特征及各因子的影响程度. 结果表明：①山西省2001~2022年VCS总体呈波动增长趋势，平均值（以C计）为350.11 g·（m2·a）-1，年均增长速率为3.92%，空间分布呈“东南高、西北低”的梯度格局；②研究区92.81%的VCS得到改善，主要受气候变化与人类活动共同主导，面积占比为98.97%，其中人类活动的贡献（98.52%）远高于气候因素（0.45%）；③D-STAC分析表明高密度矿点和城市化区域的VCS负空间自相关性显著增强，城市化和工业化活动对区域VCS存在抑制作用；④降水和高程整体上对VCS有正向作用，气温对VCS产生负向作用，而夜间灯光指数、人口密度和矿点密度则对VCS表现出双向作用. 研究结果为能源型地区VCS变化提供了量化分析框架，并为生态政策的制定提供了科学支持. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Vegetation carbon sequestration （VCS） is a crucial indicator for assessing the carbon sink capacity of ecosystems. In energy-intensive regions， mining development and urbanization have significantly increased the complexity of vegetation dynamics， making it a research priority to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to VCS. Using data such as MOD17A3H Net Primary Productivity （NPP）， mining site data， and meteorological data， VCS was calculated using the photosynthesis equation. The impacts of climate change and human activities on VCS in energy-intensive regions were quantified using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and trend analysis. Additionally， the Density-based Spatiotemporal Aggregation Clustering （D-STAC） index and Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression （MGWR） model were employed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of VCS and the influence of various factors at the pixel scale. The results indicate that： ① From 2001 to 2022， VCS in Shanxi Province showed an overall fluctuating growth trend， with an average value （in C） of 350.11 g·（m2·a）-1 and an annual growth rate of 3.92%. The spatial distribution exhibited a gradient pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest.” ② VCS improved in 92.81% of the study area， primarily influenced by both climate change and human activities， accounting for 98.97% of the area. The contribution of human activities （98.52%） was significantly higher than that of climatic factors （0.45%）. ③ D-STAC analysis revealed a significant increase in negative spatial autocorrelation of VCS in areas with high-density mining sites and urbanized regions， indicating that urbanization and industrial activities had an inhibitory effect on regional VCS. ④ Precipitation and elevation generally had a positive effect on VCS， while temperature had a negative effect. Nighttime light index， population density， and mining site density exhibited bidirectional effects on VCS. The research results provide a quantitative analysis framework for understanding VCS changes in energy-intensive regions and offer scientific support for the formulation of ecological policies. |
