| 京津冀县域土地利用碳收支时空格局、动态演进及碳补偿分区 |
| 摘要点击 496 全文点击 17 投稿时间：2025-01-17 修订日期：2025-03-27 |
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| 中文关键词 京津冀 碳收支 时空格局 动态演进 碳补偿分区 |
| 英文关键词 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region carbon budget spatio-temporal pattern dynamic evolution carbon offset zoning |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260216 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究县域土地利用碳收支时空格局、动态演进及碳补偿分区对京津冀国土空间格局优化、区域横向公平有效碳补偿机制构建具有重要实践意义. 基于土地利用覆被数据、夜间灯光数据和能源消费数据，构建京津冀县域土地利用碳收支估算模型；基于探索性空间数据分析方法和核密度估计分析碳排放时空格局及动态演进趋势；基于碳补偿价值模型测算京津冀碳补偿经济价值；最后结合主体功能分区进行碳补偿分区. 结果表明：①建设用地间接碳排放估算模型拟合R2为0.776 8，模拟精度良好，估算效果可以达到预期. ②京津冀地区碳汇量呈现持续增长趋势；碳源量过高峰后呈现下降趋势；净碳排放量总体增幅与碳源一致，并呈现显著的空间正相关性，且呈现4种聚集类型. ③京津冀整体、天津市和河北省区县间净碳排放绝对差异呈现扩大趋势，北京市区县间净碳排放绝对差异由扩大转变为缩小趋势；京津冀整体和三省市拖尾效应均较为显著. ④2022年北京市西城区、东城区和天津市和平区为重点支付区；张家口市崇礼区、北京市大兴区和承德市丰宁满族自治县为重点获补区. 获补区-限制开发区包括76个区县，为占比最高类型，集中分布于河北省燕山-太行山生态涵养区、坝上高原生态防护区大部分区县. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatio-temporal pattern， dynamic evolution， and carbon compensation zoning of the county land use carbon budget has great practical significance for territorial spatial pattern optimization and building a fair and effective regional carbon compensation mechanism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on land use cover， nighttime light， and energy consumption data， a land use carbon budget estimation model was constructed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region area. Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis method and kernel density estimation， the spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions were analyzed. The economic value of carbon offsetting was calculated based on the carbon offsetting value model. Finally， carbon compensation zoning was carried out based on K-means clustering combined with ecological function zoning. The results indicated that： ① The fitting R2 of the indirect carbon emission estimation model for construction land was 0.776 8， with good simulation accuracy and the estimation effect meeting the expected standards. ② The carbon sink in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed a continuous growth trend； the carbon source showed a decreasing trend after peaking； and the overall increase in net carbon emissions was consistent with the carbon source and exhibited significant positive spatial correlation， with four types of aggregation patterns. ③ The absolute difference in net carbon emissions between districts and counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as a whole， Tianjin， and Hebei Province showed a trend of expansion， while the absolute difference in net carbon emissions between districts in Beijing shifted from expansion to a trend of narrowing. The tailing effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole and the three provinces was quite significant. ④ In 2022， Xicheng and Dongcheng districts in Beijing and Heping district in Tianjin were key areas for payment. Chongli district in Zhangjiakou， Daxing district in Beijing， and Fengning Manchu Autonomous County in Chengde were key areas for compensation. The compensation areas-restricted development zones included 76 districts and counties， which was the type with the highest proportion， mainly concentrated in most districts and counties of the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain ecological conservation area and the Bashang Plateau ecological protection area in Hebei Province. |
