| “双碳”背景下中国中长期CO2排放情景模拟及减排路径：LEAP模型应用 |
| 摘要点击 527 全文点击 42 投稿时间：2024-12-27 修订日期：2025-03-31 |
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| 中文关键词 异质化情景 中长期碳排放 减排潜力 LEAP-China模型 碳达峰 |
| 英文关键词 heterogeneous scenarios medium-and long-term carbon emissions emission reduction potential LEAP-China model carbon peaking |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260214 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 中国是全球能源消费和碳排放第一大国，分析中国中长期碳排放及减排潜力以应对全球气候变化具有重要意义. 构建LEAP-China模型，从一次能源、终端产业和碳排放贡献度这3个维度对中国碳排放量及减排潜力进行预测分析. 结果表明：①除基准情景外，产业结构减排情景、技术进步情景、能源结构减排情景和蓝图情景下碳排放均能实现“2030年达峰”目标. ②从2022~2060年，除工业外的其余行业碳排放量均呈下降态势，2060年工业碳排放占比为74%~85%，交通运输业降幅最显著. ③工业各行业因耗能不同碳排放量差异较大，排序为：化学制品>其他工业>非金属矿物制品业>黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业>有色金属冶炼及压延加工业>造纸及造纸制品业. ④能源结构优化在短期内减排效果明显，产业结构优化是碳减排持续驱动力，技术进步是碳减排长期助推力. 研究可为中国实现中长期碳减排路径提供数据支撑与决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As the world's largest country regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions， analyzing China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential is essential to the fight against global climate change. This study constructs the LEAP-China model to forecast and analyze China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential in three dimensions： primary energy， end-use industries， and carbon emission contribution. The conclusions are as follows： ① Except for the baseline scenario， the industrial structure emission reduction， technological progress， energy structure emission reduction， and blueprint scenarios were all able to realize the goal of “peaking by 2030.” ② From 2022 to 2060， carbon emissions from all industries except industry were declining. ③ The carbon emissions of various industrial sectors varied significantly according to their energy consumption， with chemicals > other industries > non-metallic mineral products industry > ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > paper and paper products industry. ④ The optimization of energy structure had apparent emission reduction effects in the short term； the optimization of industrial structure was a continuous driving force for carbon emission reduction， and technological progress was a long-term driving force for carbon emission reduction. The study can provide a decision-making basis for China to realize the medium- and long-term carbon emission reduction path. |
