| 减污降碳与新质生产力发展耦合协调效应时空演变格局及影响因素：以长江经济带为例 |
| 摘要点击 595 全文点击 43 投稿时间：2024-12-23 修订日期：2025-03-17 |
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| 中文关键词 新质生产力发展 减污降碳 耦合协调度 影响因素 时空地理加权回归模型 |
| 英文关键词 new quality productivity development reduction of pollution and carbon emissions coupling coordination degree influencing factors geographically and temporally weighted regression model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260208 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 协同推进减污降碳与新质生产力发展对长江经济带解决生态环境问题并促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义. 综合运用修正的耦合协调模型、核密度估计、泰尔指数及时空地理加权回归模型等方法，探究2010~2022年长江经济带减污降碳与新质生产力发展耦合协调效应时空演变格局及影响因素. 结果表明：①长江经济带各省市减污降碳与新质生产力发展耦合协调水平呈逐年上升趋势，耦合协调等级由轻度失调和濒临失调为主逐步演变为初级协调为主，空间分布上呈现“北高南低”、“上游到下游阶梯递增”的特点. ②长江经济带各省市耦合协调水平的地区差异先持续减小后窄幅范围波动，区域间差异是总体差异的主导因素，区域内差异贡献率逐渐上升. ③影响因素中环境保护、产业结构、科技创新和经济发展对减污降碳与新质生产力发展耦合协调效应主要呈正向影响，能源消耗主要呈负向影响，且各因素影响存在明显的时空异质性. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The coordinated advancement of pollution reduction， carbon reduction， and the development of new-quality productive forces is significant for addressing ecological and environmental issues and promoting high-quality economic development in the Yangtze Economic Belt. This study employs a revised coupling coordination model， kernel density estimation， Theil index， and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression models to explore the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and influencing factors of the coupling coordination effects between pollution reduction， carbon reduction， and the development of new-quality productive forces in the provinces and cities of the Yangtze Economic Belt from 2010 to 2022. The results indicate that： （1） The coupling coordination levels of pollution reduction， carbon reduction， and the development of new-quality productive forces in the provinces and cities of the Yangtze Economic Belt showed an upward trend year by year， with the coupling coordination grades gradually evolving from mild disorder and near disorder to primary coordination. The spatial distribution exhibited characteristics of “higher in the north and lower in the south” and an “increasing stepwise gradient from upstream to downstream.” （2） The regional differences in coupling coordination levels among the provinces and cities of the Yangtze Economic Belt initially decreased continuously and then fluctuated within a narrow range. Inter-regional differences were the dominant factor of overall differences， while intra-regional differences contributed increasingly. （3） Environmental protection， industrial structure， technological innovation， and economic development primarily had positive impacts on the coupling coordination effects of pollution reduction， carbon reduction， and the development of new-quality productive forces. Energy consumption mainly had a negative impact， and there was significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of various factors. |
