| 危机转化视角下中国省际碳排放与经济发展的脱钩“链式”反应分析 |
| 摘要点击 541 全文点击 24 投稿时间：2024-12-28 修订日期：2025-03-30 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放 脱钩 危机转化 马尔可夫链 减碳增效 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emission decoupling crisis transformation Markov chain reduce carbon and increase efficiency |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260207 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 碳排放与经济发展脱钩是实现“双碳”目标的重要抓手，但脱钩状态的不稳定迫使地区低碳发展极易陷入“增碳减效”（强负脱钩）和“强增碳弱增效”（增长负脱钩）的双重“危机”. 因此，基于Tapio模型分析2010~2021年中国30个省（区、市）碳排放脱钩状态的时空演变特征，构建碳排放脱钩危机转化评价模型，探讨碳脱钩状态是否向好转变的链式反应特征. 结果发现：①中国碳脱钩进程虽整体向好，但暴露出高碳依赖模式的系统性风险，部分地区通过危机倒逼机制成功突破路径锁定，形成“低碳突围”示范效应，验证了危机驱动的转型可行性；②碳排放脱钩的危机转化效能存在“半程困境”（转化率为40%~50%），既反映传统发展惯性的持续阻力，也揭示区域分化背后的政策响应差异；③脱钩状态的“链式跃迁”特征表明，危机转化具有“风险解构-要素重置-发展转型”的动态累积效应；④能源强度的核心驱动作用与单位能耗碳排放的积极作用，凸显驱动危机转化的双重路径，短期依赖强度调控可能加剧波动风险，而效率提升才是化解“减排-增长”矛盾的系统性解方. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Decoupling carbon emissions from economic development is a critical strategy for achieving dual-carbon goals. However， the instability of decoupling states can easily trap regions into a “double crisis” characterized by both increased carbon emissions and reduced economic effectiveness （strong negative decoupling） and high carbon growth with low effectiveness gains （growth-negative decoupling）. In this study， spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the carbon emission decoupling status of China's 30 provinces （municipalities， autonomous regions） were analyzed from 2010 to 2021 by using the Tapio model. An evaluation model was constructed for the transformation of carbon emission decoupling crises and chain reaction features of improvements in the decoupling state were analyzed. The findings revealed that： ① Although China's overall decoupling process showed improvement， it exposed systemic risks associated with high-carbon dependency models. Some regions had successfully broken through path lock-ins via crisis-driven mechanisms， creating demonstrative effects of “low-carbon breakthroughs” and validating the feasibility of crisis-driven transformations. ② The effectiveness of transforming carbon emission decoupling crises faces a “halfway dilemma” （40%-50% conversion rate）， reflecting persistent resistance from traditional developmental inertia as well as policy response disparities underlying regional differentiation. ③ The “chain leapfrogging” characteristic of decoupling states indicates that crisis transformation possesses dynamic cumulative effects of “risk deconstruction-element repositioning-development transition.” ④ The core driving role of energy intensity and the positive role of carbon emissions of per energy consumption highlight the dual path of driving crisis transformation， short-term dependence on intensity regulation may exacerbate volatility risks， and efficiency improvement is the systematic solution to resolve the “emission-growth” contradiction. Short-term reliance on intensity control may exacerbate volatility risks； however， enhancing efficiency remains the systematic solution for resolving the contradiction between emission reduction and growth. |
