| 中国城市碳减排与经济增长的交互响应关系及协同演进特征：基于282个地级及以上城市的证据 |
| 摘要点击 538 全文点击 33 投稿时间：2024-12-25 修订日期：2025-03-20 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 碳减排 经济增长 交互响应 协同演进 时空特征 动态分布 |
| 英文关键词 carbon reduction economic growth interactive response collaborative evolution spatiotemporal characteristics dynamic distribution |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260206 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 实现碳减排与经济增长协同共进是我国推动低碳转型发展的必然选择. 基于2006~2022年282个地级及以上城市的面板数据，在利用PVAR模型明晰碳排放与经济增长互动关系的基础上，使用修正后的格鲁贝尔-劳埃德指数测度二者的协同程度，并结合ArcGIS等工具对城市碳减排与经济增长协同发展的时序特征和空间分布进行可视化分析，利用Kernel密度估计方法揭示其分布动态及演进规律，使用Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解方法探究总体差异及其来源. 结果表明：①从互动关系来看，碳排放与经济增长均具有自我增强机制，但自身累积效应逐渐减弱. 经济增长对碳排放的影响符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的倒“U”型特征，碳排放对经济增长则表现出长期上的负面影响. ②在时空特征方面，城市碳减排与经济增长协同水平呈现显著的波动上升态势，考察期内提升24.17%，空间分布特征逐渐演变为“西低东高”的梯度分布. ③在动态演进方面，全国及四大区域城市碳减排与经济增长协同水平的核密度曲线总体右移，主峰高度先上升后下降，且宽度拓宽，右拖尾现象明显，以单峰形态为主，表明各地区协同水平有所提高，但地区内部的总体差异扩大，离散程度加剧，尚未出现明显的多极分化现象. ④从区域差异来看，全国整体基尼系数呈现微弱的波动上升状态，表明我国城市在碳减排与经济增长协同方面的差异有所扩大，但同时也保持了相对平衡. 四大区域内及区域间差异总体同样上升，但不同区域对的动态特征显著不同，区域间差异构成了总体差异的主要来源. 研究结论有利于各地区明晰自身优势与短板，因地制宜实现低碳转型发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Realizing the coordinated progress of carbon reduction and economic growth is an inevitable choice for China to promote low-carbon transformation and development. This article is based on panel data from 282 prefecture level and above cities from 2006 to 2022. Using the PVAR model to clarify the interaction between carbon emissions and economic growth， the modified Gruber Lloyd index is used to measure the degree of synergy between the two. ArcGIS and other tools are used to visualize the temporal characteristics and spatial distribution of the coordinated development of urban carbon emission reduction and economic growth. Kernel density estimation method is used to reveal its distribution dynamics and evolution rules， and the Dagum Gini coefficient and its subgroup decomposition method are used to explore the overall differences and their sources. The results indicated that： ① From the perspective of interactive relationships， both carbon emissions and economic growth had self-reinforcing mechanisms， but their cumulative effects gradually weakened. The impact of economic growth on carbon emissions conformed to the inverted “U” shape of the Environmental Kuznets Curve， while carbon emissions exhibited long-term negative effects on economic growth. In terms of spatiotemporal characteristics， the synergy level between urban carbon reduction and economic growth showed a significant upward trend， with an increase of 24.17% during the investigation period. The spatial distribution characteristics gradually evolved into a gradient distribution of “low in the west and high in the east.” In terms of dynamic evolution， the core density curve of the synergy level between carbon emission reduction and economic growth in cities across the country and the four major regions generally shifted to the right， with the main peak height first increasing and then decreasing and the width widening. The phenomenon of a right tail was obvious， mainly in the form of a single peak， indicating that the synergy level in various regions improved. However， the overall differences within the regions widened， and the degree of dispersion intensified. There has not yet been a significant multipolar differentiation phenomenon. From the perspective of regional differences， the overall Gini coefficient of the country showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend， indicating that the differences in carbon reduction and economic growth synergy among Chinese cities expanded， but at the same time， they also maintained a relative balance. The overall differences within and between the four major regions also increased， but the dynamic characteristics of various regions were significantly different， and inter-regional differences constituted the main source of overall differences. The research conclusion is beneficial for each region to clarify its own advantages and shortcomings and to achieve low-carbon transformation and development according to local conditions. |
