| 科技园区碳足迹及减排路径分析 |
| 摘要点击 1773 全文点击 90 投稿时间：2024-12-29 修订日期：2025-03-05 |
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| 中文关键词 科技园区 碳足迹 碳达峰 情景分析 LMDI分解法 减排路径 |
| 英文关键词 science and technology park carbon footprint emission peaking scenario analysis LMDI method emission reduction pathway |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202412317 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科技园区是国家技术创新的重要载体，在“双碳”目标背景下，亟需厘清其碳足迹特征与碳达峰路径，支撑我国经济发展与低碳转型. 构建了科技园区碳足迹核算框架，以北京某高精尖科技园区为研究对象，对能源相关重点排放源进行精细化建模，基于一手活动水平数据对2011~2023年园区碳足迹进行动态化分析，结合情景分析法和LMDI分解法预测园区未来达峰路径，并提出相应的低碳发展建议. 结果表明：①该科技园区碳足迹（以CO2-eq计，下同）从2011年的67 748.93 t增长至2 023年的174 615.45 t，其中范围三是最大的贡献来源，在2023年占比为55.27%；②从情景预测分析来看，绿色低碳情景下的减排效益最为显著，可在2026年达到峰值（175 200.20 t），基准情景可在2028年达到峰值（188 413.33 t），产业扩张情景在2030年仍未到达峰值（216 410.39 t）. 3种情景下外购电量、员工数量和员工出行相关碳足迹因子都是导致园区碳足迹上升的主要因素，未来科技园区可从加强能效管理、增强园区数字化与智能化和倡导绿色交通出行方式等方面入手，实现园区的“双碳”目标；电力消费结构低碳化和燃油汽车数量下降则有效抑制了碳足迹，可通过提高清洁能源使用比例和低碳交通体系优化进一步巩固. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Science and technology parks play a pivotal role in national technological innovation. In the context of China’s goals for emission peaking and carbon neutrality， assessing their carbon footprints and pathways to emission peaking is essential for fostering economic development and facilitating the low-carbon transition. This study established a carbon footprint accounting framework for science and technology parks and applied it to a high-tech and advanced manufacturing park in Beijing as a case study. A refined modeling of key energy-related emission sources was conducted， followed by a dynamic carbon footprint analysis from 2011 to 2023 based on first-hand activity data. Future emission peaking pathways were projected using scenario analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition， with corresponding low-carbon development strategies proposed. The results indicate that：① The carbon footprint （measured in CO2-eq） increased from 67 748.93 tons in 2011 to 174 615.45 tons in 2023， with Scope 1 emissions peaking at 16 422.44 tons in 2020， approximately 90% of which came from stationary combustion sources. Scope 2 emissions declined to 37.52% of total emissions by 2023 after peaking at 69 475.74 tons in 2018， and Scope 3 emissions， the largest and fastest-growing component， accounted for 55.27% in 2023， primarily driven by workforce expansion and related factors. ② Scenario analysis suggested that the green low-carbon scenario offered the highest emission reduction potential， enabling the park to peak at 175 200.20 tons by 2026， while the baseline scenario projected a peak of 188 413.33 tons in 2028， and the industrial expansion scenario failed to peak by 2030， reaching 216 410.39 tons. The increase in the carbon footprint of the park across all three scenarios was primarily driven by the amount of purchased electricity， the number of employees， and carbon emissions associated with employee travel； thus， to mitigate these impacts， future science and technology parks should focus on strengthening energy efficiency management while enhancing digitalization and intelligent park operations as well as promoting green transportation， whereas the decarbonization of electricity consumption and the reduction in fuel-powered vehicles have already curbed carbon emissions to some extent， which can be further reinforced by increasing the share of clean energy and optimizing low-carbon transportation systems. |
