| 三峡库区土地利用碳收支时空格局及碳平衡管理分区 |
| 摘要点击 1667 全文点击 80 投稿时间：2024-12-06 修订日期：2025-03-04 |
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| 中文关键词 碳收支 土地利用 时空特征 碳平衡 三峡库区 |
| 英文关键词 carbon budget land use spatial and temporal characteristics carbon balance Three Gorges Reservoir Region |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202412063 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 李辉 | 西安交通大学管理学院, 西安 710049
重庆财经学院公共管理学院, 重庆 401320
生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401320 | lihui@stu.xjtu.edu.cn | | 孙少龙 | 西安交通大学管理学院, 西安 710049 | sunshaolong@xjtu.edu.cn | | 贾玉婷 | 重庆财经学院公共管理学院, 重庆 401320
生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401320 | | | 杨也 | 重庆财经学院公共管理学院, 重庆 401320
生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401320 | | | 周启刚 | 生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401320 | | | 兰静 | 重庆财经学院公共管理学院, 重庆 401320
生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401320 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| “双碳”战略对于推动全球绿色低碳发展、实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义. 三峡库区是重要生态屏障与水调控区，探究其土地利用和“双碳”管理具有代表性. 在空间技术的支撑下，以2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年这5期三峡库区Landsat TM/Landsat 8OLI遥感影像为数据源，综合运用标准差椭圆、重心分析、空间自相关分析和碳综合管理等模型与方法，深入测度与解析了研究区土地利用和碳收支时空演变特征和碳平衡管理分区. 结果表明：①研究区以林地与耕地为主，建设用地增加最多，达到1 769.13 km2，草地与耕地分别减少1 677.67 km2和810.15 km2，其他地类相对稳定，土地利用变化具有空间异质性和不均性；②三峡库区碳排放量先剧增后缓降，2010年达峰值3 915.83万t，后逐年下降至3 556.10万t，降幅9.19%. 拐点为2010年，前后变化幅度差异显著，后10 a趋势放缓并微降；③三峡库区碳吸收量先剧降（-9.50%），后缓增（2005~2015年增6.94%），再缓降（2015~2020年降-3.38%），总体波动显著；④碳收支空间格局特征明显，库尾11县区碳排放集中（55.00%），库腹11县区碳吸收高效且呈现逐年增长态势. 碳吸收与排放分布不均，高排放偏库尾，高吸收偏库首，需要特别关注；⑤碳管理分区显示，库尾多补偿支付区，库首、库腹为平衡区，分布具有集聚与异质性. 在减排增汇方面，仍存在较大优化空间. 研究可为三峡库区乃至类似地区的碳管理提供科学依据和实践指导，同时也为丰富生态系统碳循环理论，应对全球气候变化和推动绿色低碳发展提供重要参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As the cornerstone of economic and social development， county-level regions hold significant strategic importance for accurately assessing China's carbon source distribution and carbon sink capacity， as well as effectively guiding the precise implementation of carbon neutrality strategies. The Three Gorges Reservoir Region， as a critical ecological barrier and water regulation zone， represents a significant case study for exploring land use and dual-carbon management. Supported by spatial technologies， this study used Landsat TM/Landsat 8 OLI remote sensing images from the years 2000， 2005， 2010， 2015， and 2020 as data sources. It employed models and methods such as standard deviation ellipses， centroid analysis， spatial autocorrelation analysis， and integrated carbon management to measure and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use， carbon budgets， and carbon balance management zoning in the study area. The results indicate： ① The study area was dominated by forest land and arable land. Construction land increased the most， reaching 1 769.13 km2， while grassland and arable land decreased by 1 677.67 km2 and 810.15 km2， respectively. Other land categories remained relatively stable， exhibiting spatial heterogeneity and unevenness in land use changes. ② Carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region first increased sharply and then gradually decreased， peaking at 39.15 million tons in 2010 and subsequently declining annually to 35.56 million tons， a reduction of 9.19%. The turning point occurred in 2010， with significant differences in the rate of change before and after and a slower declining trend over the subsequent decade. ③ Carbon absorption in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region initially declined sharply （-9.50%）， then increased moderately （6.94% from 2005 to 2015）， followed by a slight decrease （-3.38% from 2015 to 2020）， with significant overall fluctuations. ④ The spatial pattern of carbon budgets was evident， with 55.00% of carbon emissions concentrated in 11 counties at the reservoir tail and efficient， annually increasing carbon absorption in 11 counties at the reservoir belly. The distribution of carbon absorption and emissions was uneven， with higher emissions at the reservoir tail and higher absorption at the reservoir head， warranting particular attention. ⑤ Carbon management zoning indicated that the reservoir tail mainly consisted of compensation payment zones， while the reservoir head and belly were balance zones， exhibiting clustering and heterogeneity in their distribution. There remains significant room for optimization in emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement. The study provides scientific basis and practical guidance for carbon management in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region and similar regions， while also contributing important insights to the ecosystem carbon cycle theory， addressing global climate change， and promoting green and low-carbon development. |
