| CCUS技术对碳中和与空气质量提升协同效益的影响 |
| 摘要点击 3052 全文点击 266 投稿时间：2024-07-15 修订日期：2025-02-27 |
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| 中文关键词 碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS） 碳中和 环境协同效益 协同减排 大气污染 |
| 英文关键词 carbon capture, utilization, and storage （CCUS） carbon neutrality environment co-benefits synergic mitigation air pollution |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407170 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）作为我国实现碳中和目标的一项关键性技术，其旨在保障化石能源继续运作的同时降低净CO2排放量. 然而，CCUS技术的过度使用或将“分散”可再生能源转型的注意力，损害碳中和与空气质量提升的预期协同效益. 为充分释放我国“碳污”协同治理潜力，亟需明晰CCUS技术在协同效益背景下的作用机制.通过设置不同CCUS技术部署情景，基于机器学习模型与超立方拉丁抽样，分别从省区、行业和污染物等层面评估CCUS技术对我国2060年碳中和目标与空气质量提升的协同效益影响. 结果表明，电力部门和非电力工业部门的NOx和颗粒物排放与CO2的同源性最强. 受CCUS技术的额外碳排放预算影响，相比于无CCUS技术部署情景，工业部门的大气污染物排放将显著上升，NH3、NOx、PM2.5、SO2和VOC排放量将最多上升209.4%、208.4%、183.7%、272.6%和250.5%. 从省区来看，山东和河南等省份的大气污染物排放量因CCUS技术部署而上升的幅度最大. 研究可为缓解CCUS技术的负面影响，需在推进碳中和的同时，加强对NH3和VOC等与CO2同源性相对较弱的污染物控制. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Carbon capture， utilization， and storage （CCUS）， which aims to reserve fossil fuel uses in a low-carbon manner， is indispensable for carbon neutrality in China. However， the excess use of CCUS will distract the focus on energy transitions to renewables and in turn hamper the expected air quality co-benefits by carbon neutrality. As such， it is essential to identify how CCUS acts in the context of air quality co-benefits so as to fully facilitate the synergic reductions of CO2 and air pollutants. Here， we set several CCUS-deployed scenarios and conducted machine learning algorithms with Latin hypercube sampling and evaluated the impacts of CCUS on the air quality co-benefits during carbon neutrality by region， industry， and pollutant. We showed that nitrogen oxide （NOx） and particulate matter （PM） from power and nonpower sectors were most directly linked to CO2 emissions. Air pollutant emissions from industrial sectors exhibited significant increments due to CCUS deployment， where increases in ammonia （NH3）， NOx， PM2.5， sulfur dioxide （SO2）， and volatile organic compounds （VOC） were up to 209.4%， 208.4%， 183.7%， 272.6%， and 250.5%， respectively. With regard to region， central provinces such as Shandong and Henan suffered from the major negative impacts of CCUS. To mitigate the negative impacts of CCUS， it is necessary to facilitate control measures for air pollutants that are not directly linked to fossil fuel-related CO2 as well as carbon neutrality. |
