| 西北干旱区植被时空演变及驱动力分析 |
| 摘要点击 2330 全文点击 308 投稿时间：2024-10-30 修订日期：2025-01-03 |
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| 中文关键词 西北干旱区 植被覆盖度（FVC） 稳定性 Hurst指数 地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词 arid region of northwest China fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) stability Hurst index Geodetector |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202410261 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 西北干旱区是全球变化响应最为敏感区域之一，定量分析该区域植被覆盖及其驱动力对干旱区脆弱生态系统的保护和绿洲经济社会的高质量发展至关重要. 通过2000~2022年植被覆盖度（FVC）数据和驱动因素数据，采用Sen's和Mann-Kendall检验分析方法探究该区域内不同亚区FVC时空变化，借助变异系数（CV）和Hurst指数方法分析该区域FVC时空变化的稳定性和未来发展的趋势，并结合气候变化和人类活动因素，使用地理探测器方法揭示了不同亚区FVC的驱动机制. 结果表明：①在空间上，西北干旱区呈现“北部大于南部，西北优于东南，山区高于盆地”的空间格局，FVC最大的区域为天山北麓，最小的区域为吐哈盆地；在时间上，FVC多年均值为0.19，23 a间增长幅度为23.92%. ②在不同亚区中，阿拉善高原、昆仑山脉和河西走廊中东部FVC明显改善，在河西走廊北部、天山南麓东部等局部区域FVC呈现下降趋势；整体上，FVC呈上升趋势的区域占比达67%. ③西北干旱区FVC的CV系数较为稳定，稳定面积其占比66.7%；另外，Hurst指数均值为0.58，其中81%的区域大于0.5，整体呈现正向持续发展特征. ④23 a间，西北干旱区FVC各影响因素中，在因子探测中，土地利用的解释力最强，而夜间灯光的解释力最小；在交互探测中，地形与土地利用的相互驱动作用最大，而地形与夜间灯光影响力最小；另外，在不同的亚区和不同年份空间异质性显著，呈现不同的影响程度. 研究有助于揭示FVC时空演变及其不同因子的驱动机制，进而为生态环境保护和绿洲农业持续发展提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The arid region of northwest China is one of the most sensitive areas in response to global change. Quantitative analysis of vegetation cover and its driving forces is crucial for protecting fragile ecosystems in the Northwest Arid Zone (NWAZ) and supporting high-quality economic and social development in the oasis. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal changes of the data of vegetation cover (FVC) in different subzones of the region by using the Sen's and Mann-Kendall tests with FVC and drivers from 2000 to 2022. Additionally, the stability of spatial and temporal changes of FVC and future development trends of FVC were analyzed using the coefficient of variation (CV) and the Hurst index method. The results showed that: ① Spatially, NWAZ showed a spatial pattern of "the north was larger than the south, the north-west was better than the south-east, and the mountainous areas were higher than the basins, " with the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains as the largest area of the FVC and the Tuha Basin as the smallest area. Temporally, the multi-year average of the FVC was 0.19, and the increase in FVC during the period of 23 years was 23.92%. ② Among the different subregions, the FVC improved significantly in the Alashan Plateau, Kunlun Mountains, and the east-central part of the Hexi Corridor and showed a decreasing trend in the northern part of the Hexi Corridor and the eastern part of the southern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains, etc. Overall, 67% of the regions showed an increasing trend in FVC. ③ The CV coefficient of the FVC in the NWAZ was relatively stable, with 66.7% of its area remaining stable. In addition, the mean value of the Hurst index was 0.58, with 81% of the area being greater than 0.5, demonstrating overall positive and continuous development characteristics. ④ Over the 23-year period, land use had the strongest explanatory power among factors influencing FVC in the arid region of northwest China, whereas nighttime lighting had the smallest explanatory power in factor probes. In interaction probes, topography and land use had the largest mutual driving effect, while topography and nighttime lighting had the smallest impacts. Moreover, spatial heterogeneity was significant in different subzones and years, demonstrating varying degrees of influence. The study revealed the spatial and temporal evolution of FVC and the driving mechanisms of its different factors, providing a scientific basis for ecological environmental protection and the sustainable development of oasis agriculture. |
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