| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的陕西省多情景土地覆盖模拟与碳储量评估 |
| 摘要点击 1971 全文点击 232 投稿时间：2024-09-05 修订日期：2024-11-01 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 陕西省 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 |
| 英文关键词 land use change carbon stock Shaanxi Province PLUS model InVEST model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202409068 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 程明月 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | cmy0921@stu.henau.edu.cn | | 姬广兴 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | | | 黄珺嫦 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | huangjc1014@henau.edu.cn | | 耿健茜 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046 | | | 李玲 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | | | 路婕 | 河南农业大学资源与环境学院, 郑州 450046
河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 全球社会经济的高速发展给自然环境带来了沉重的压力，化石燃料的燃烧释放了大量的CO2，严重危害了人类的生产生活. 基于“双碳”目标的战略背景，选取耕地、林地和草地面积占比较大的陕西省作为研究区域，采用IPCC报告中SSPs气体排放情景研究未来时期陕西省土地利用类型的变化以及碳储量的变化特征. 结果表明：①在SSP126情景下，陕西省2030~2050年土地利用类型变化为林地面积增加，耕地和草地面积减少. 在SSP245情景下，2030~2050年土地利用类型变化为耕地和建设用地面积增加，林地、草地等面积减少. 在SSP585情景下，2030~2050年土地利用类型变化为耕地和建设用地面积增加，林地、草地等面积减少. ②对于陕西省2030~2050年碳储量模拟研究发现在SSPs的3种情景下，陕西省最适合SSP126情景下的发展路径，即可持续的社会经济发展和较低的气体排放. ③碳储量主要集中储存在林地和草地等碳密度值高的土地利用类型，结合陕西省土地利用空间分布，发现碳储量值较高的区域分布在陕南地区秦岭山脉、南部山地一带以及陕北南部；碳储量居中的区域分布在陕北中部黄土高原一带、关中地区关中平原大部分地区和陕南汉中一带；碳储量低的区域主要分布在陕北与毛乌素沙地接壤的一带、关中地区沿渭河流域呈集中或零星分布、陕南地区沿汉江流域呈零星分布. 在SSP585情景下，未来陕西省低碳储量面积大于其他两种情景. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The rapid development of global society and economy has brought heavy pressure on the natural environment， and the burning of fossil fuels releases a large amount of CO2， which seriously harms the production and life of human beings. Based on the strategic background of the dual-carbon target， this study selected Shaanxi Province， which accounts for a large area of cropland， woodland， and grassland， as its study area and used the gas emission scenario of SSPs in the IPCC report to study the future period of the province's land-use type changes and the characteristics of its carbon stock changes to provide theoretical suggestions for the changes of ecosystem carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province in the future period. The results of the study follow： ① Under the SSP126 scenario， the change in land use types in Shaanxi Province in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of woodland and a decrease in the area of cropland and grassland. Under the SSP245 scenario， the change in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland and grassland. Under the SSP585 scenario， the change in land use types in 2030-2050 consists of an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland， grassland， and others. ② The simulation study of Shaanxi Province's carbon stock in 2030-2050 found that among the three SSP scenarios Shaanxi Province is most suitable for the development path of SSP126， i.e.， sustainable socioeconomic development and lower gas emissions. ③ Carbon stocks are mainly concentrated in land use types with high carbon density values， such as woodlands and grasslands. An examination of the spatial distribution of land use in Shaanxi Province revealed that areas with high carbon stock values are distributed in the Qinling Mountains in southern Shaanxi， the southern mountainous areas， and in southern Shaanxi. Areas with medium carbon stocks are distributed in the Loess Plateau in central northern Shaanxi， most of the Guanzhong Plain in the Guanzhong Region， and in Hanzhong in southern Shaanxi. Areas with low carbon stocks are mainly distributed in the areas bordering the Mu Us Desert in northern Shaanxi， concentrated or sporadically distributed along the Weihe River Basin in the Guanzhong Region， and sporadically distributed along the Hanjiang River Basin in southern Shaanxi. The area of future low-carbon reserves in Shaanxi Province is larger under the SSP585 scenario than under the other two scenarios. |
