| 基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的宁东能源化工基地碳储量估测及经济价值估算 |
| 摘要点击 233 全文点击 3 投稿时间：2024-06-11 修订日期：2024-08-19 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 碳汇 InVEST模型 土地利用 宁东能源化工基地 CA-Markov模型 碳储量经济价值 |
| 英文关键词 carbon reserves carbon sink InVEST model land use Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base CA-Markov model economic value of carbon reserves |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250735 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于“双碳”背景探讨国家级能源化工基地土地利用格局与碳储量变化关系，进行碳储量及碳汇价值估测预测，为工业领域提高生态系统固碳潜力及“双碳”目标达成提供重要参考. 宁东能源化工基地为西北地区工业重要支撑，在工业领域全面推进绿色转型的背景下，工业基地是工业领域科学精准实现碳减排的关键. 以国家级能源基地宁东能源化工基地为研究区，运用InVEST模型和CA-Markov模型，预测并评估2030年不同情景下工业基地碳储量变化的时空差异特征. 结果表明：①2000~2020年宁东能源化工基地建设用地呈持续大幅增加特征，林地先增加后减少，未利用地先大幅增加后减少. ②2000~2020年碳储量呈先增后减趋势，碳储量增加2.58×105 t，在空间上呈南北部向中部逐渐升高的分布特征，碳储量低值分布在研究区南北两边，对应城镇发展和工业基地；2020~2030年自然发展和生态保护情景碳储量分别减少4.66×105 t和1.92×105 t；相比自然发展情景，生态保护情景限制建设用地扩张，水域面积增加，生态效应显著. ③2020~2030年NVC和EVC分别增加碳汇经济价值195.85万美元和331.79万美元，基地建设导致草地、未利用地与建设用地之间转换是引起区域碳储量急剧变动的重要因素. 研究可为西北地区工业园区碳储量估算提供普适性模型，结论可为工业基地生态调控和碳交易情况提供理论支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the background of “dual-carbon，” we explore the relationship between land use patterns and carbon stock changes in national energy and chemical bases and estimate and predict the carbon stock and sink value to provide important references for improving the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems in the industrial field to reaching the goal of "dual-carbon." The Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base is an important support for the industry in Northwest China， and in the context of promoting green transformation in the industrial field， this industrial base is the key to realizing carbon emission reduction scientifically and accurately. Taking theNingdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base， a national-level energy base， as the study area， the InVEST model and CA-Markov model are applied to predict and evaluate the characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in carbon stock changes in industrial bases under different scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the construction land of the Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base was characterized by a continuous and substantial increase， forest land increased and then decreased， and unutilized land increased and then decreased substantially. ② Carbon stock from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing， with an increase of 2.58×105 t and a spatial distribution of gradual increase from the north and south to the center， and the low value of carbon stock was distributed in the north and south of the study area， corresponding to the urban development and industrial base. From 2020 to 2030， the carbon stock in the scenario of natural development and eco-protection decreased by 4.66×105 t and 1.92×105 t， respectively， Compared with that of the scenario of natural development， the carbon stock of the ecological protection scenario decreased by 4.66×105 t and 1.92×105 t， respectively. Compared with those under the natural development scenario， the eco-protection scenario restricted the expansion of construction land， increased the water area， and had a significant ecological effect. ③ The two scenarios from 2020 to 2030 increased the economic value of carbon sinks by 1 958 500 and 3 317 900 U.S. dollars， respectively. The conversion of grassland， unutilized land， and construction land due to base construction was an important factor that caused drastic changes in the regional carbon stock. The study provides a universal model for carbon stock estimation in industrial parks in Northwest China， and the conclusions can provide theoretical support for ecological regulation of industrial bases and carbon trading situations. |
