| 顾及时滞和累积效应的西南喀斯特地区植被变化归因分析 |
| 摘要点击 149 全文点击 16 投稿时间：2024-06-17 修订日期：2024-08-12 |
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| 中文关键词 西南喀斯特地区 生态修复工程（ERPs） 归一化植被指数（NDVI） 时滞和累积效应 气候变化 人类活动 |
| 英文关键词 karst region of southwest China ecological restoration projects（ERPs） normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） time lag and accumulation effects climate change human activity |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250732 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 评估气候变化和人类活动对西南喀斯特地区植被变化的影响，对喀斯特生态系统可持续发展具有重要意义. 基于1982~2019年GIMMS NDVI 和SPOT NDVI融合数据，气象站点降水和温度数据，运用趋势分析、偏相关分析和修订的残差分析法探究生态修复工程（ERPs）前后气候变化和人类活动对植被变化的影响. 结果表明：① 从时间来看，ERPs前NDVI呈缓慢下降趋势（P>0.05，-0.000 1 a-1），实施后转变为显著上升趋势（P<0.01，0.005 4 a-1）；空间上，ERPs前NDVI以不显著变化（>85%）占主导，而实施后呈显著上升趋势的区域（>75%）增加明显；不同喀斯特地貌分区总体变化趋势相同，但存在空间异质性. ② ERPs前后，降水对NDVI的影响以累积效应和时滞-累积效应为主，而大部分地区温度对NDVI的影响以累积效应和时滞效应为主；植被生长对前1~3月降水和温度的变化比较敏感，而东北部地区植被生长受当月温度的影响较明显；不同喀斯特地貌分区降水和温度对NDVI的时滞和累积效应差异显著. ③ ERPs前后，气候变化和人类活动协同是西南喀斯特地区NDVI变化的主要驱动力，人类活动从消极作用转为积极促进作用；气候变化对NDVI变化的贡献率减小（38.19%降至20.65%），而人类活动对NDVI变化的贡献率增强（61.81%升至79.35%），表明人类活动对西南喀斯特地区植被恢复影响显著. 研究结果可为西南喀斯特地区生态环境监测及区域可持续发展提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation changes in the karst region of southwest China is of great significance for the sustainable development of karst ecosystems. Based on the GIMMS NDVI and SPOT NDVI fusion data， combined with precipitation and temperature meteorological station data from 1982 to 2019， the effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation changes before and after the ecological restoration projects （ERPs） were investigated by using trend analysis， partial correlation analysis， and modified residual analysis. The results showed that： ① Temporally， the trend of NDVI had shifted from a slow decrease （P>0.05， -0.000 1 a-1） to a significant increase （P<0.01， 0.005 4 a-1） before and after the implementation of ERPs. Spatially， NDVI changes were predominantly non-significant （>85%） before the ERPs， while the proportion of areas with a significant upward trend was more than 75% after the ERPs. The same changing trend in different karst landform subregions occurred but showed spatial heterogeneity. ② Before and after the implementation of ERPs， precipitation showed obvious accumulative and time lag-accumulative effects on the changes of NDVI， while temperature showed accumulative and time-lag effects in most areas. Vegetation growth was sensitive to precipitation and temperature changes during the previous one to three months in most areas， while it was significantly affected by the temperature of the current month in the northeast. There was a significant difference in the time-lag and accumulative effects of precipitation and temperature on NDVI in different karstic subregions. ③ Climate change and human activities were the main driving factors affecting NDVI changes in the karst region of southwest China， and the impact of human activities on NDVI shifted from negative to positive after the implementation of ERPs. The relative contribution of climate change on NDVI decreased （38.19%→20.65%）， while the human activities on NDVI were significantly enhanced （61.81%→79.35%） after the implementation of ERPs， indicating that human activities had a significant impact on the vegetation restoration in the karst region of southwest China. This study revealed the characteristics and attributions of NDVI changes before and after the ERPs， which could provide a scientific basis for ecological environment monitoring and regional sustainable development in the southwest karst area of China． |
