| 中国能源消费碳排放达峰情景预测：基于STIRPAT扩展模型 |
| 摘要点击 210 全文点击 19 投稿时间：2024-06-03 修订日期：2024-08-26 |
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| 中文关键词 能源消费 碳排放 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 碳达峰预测 |
| 英文关键词 energy consumption carbon emissions influencing factors STIRPAT model ridge regression carbon peak prediction |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250705 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科学识别影响碳排放增长的主要因素，准确预测中国碳排放峰值及碳达峰时间，对中国如期实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义. 以1980~2022年中国经济社会发展和能源消费数据为基础，应用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）和岭回归分析方法，识别了影响中国能源消费CO2排放的7个主要因素，构建了基于STIRPAT模型的中国能源消费碳排放多元回归模型，并应用模型对2023~2035年中国能源消费碳排放进行了分情景预测. 结果表明：①人口、城镇化率、二产比例、人均GDP和电气化率等5个因素是拉动能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素，化石能源比例和能源强度等2个因素是抑制能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素；②在不同的经济发展阶段，各个影响因素对碳排放的贡献发生了明显的变化，其中能源强度、二产比例和化石能源比例等3个因素的正负效应发生了转折性变化，反映出不同发展阶段能源消费碳排放的阶段性特征；③基准情景下，中国能源消费碳排放在2030年达峰，峰值为120.4亿t；低碳情景下，碳达峰时间提前2 a，峰值为116.6亿t，比基准情景下降3.16%；高碳情景下，碳达峰时间滞后2 a，峰值为127.5亿t，比基准情景上升5.90%. 为确保中国在2030年之前实现碳达峰目标，从加快能源结构调整、提升电气化水平、优化产业结构和提高能源利用效率等方面提出了相关建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 is the solemn commitment of the Chinese government to the international community. It is important to scientifically identify the key influencing factors and accurately predict carbon peak value and time for achieving the dual carbon targets in China. On the basis of the economic and energy consumption data from 1980 to 2022， a STIRPAT extended multivariate-nonlinear model was built， which was fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationships between carbon emissions of energy consumption and seven influencing factors， including population， GDP per capita， energy intensity， secondary industry proportion， fossil energy proportion， electrification rate， and urbanization rate. Based on the proposed STIRPAT extended model， predictions of carbon emissions of energy consumption were made for the period from 2023-2035 under three different scenarios. The results showed that： ① There were five factors that increased the carbon emissions including population， urbanization rate， secondary industry proportion， GDP per capita， and electrification rate. The degree of influence decreased in turn. Fossil energy proportion and energy intensity were the two factors that restrained the carbon emissions. The influencing degree of fossil energy proportion was the biggest， and that of energy intensity was the smallest. ② During different stages of economic development， the roles and contributions of the seven factors changed significantly. In particular， the effects of energy intensity， secondary industry proportion， and fossil energy proportion resulted in the turning changes， which reflected the periodical characteristics of carbon emissions in different stages. ③ Carbon emissions of energy consumption will achieve a peak during 2028-2032 in China. The peak was 11.66-12.75 billion tons. Under the baseline scenario， the peak was 12.04 billion tons， which will be fulfilled in 2030. The peak of the low-carbon scenario was 11.66 billion tons in 2028， which was 3.16% lower than that of the baseline scenario. The peak of the high-carbon scenario was 12.75 billion tons in 2032， which was 5.90% higher than that of the baseline scenario. Based on the research results， reasonable suggestions such as accelerating renewable energy development， increasing the electrification rate， optimizing the economic structure， and improving energy efficiency are put forward to ensure that China will achieve its carbon peak target before 2030. |
