| 基于InVEST-PLUS模型的皖江流域碳储量时空演变及预测 |
| 摘要点击 655 全文点击 72 投稿时间：2024-06-06 修订日期：2024-07-23 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 地理探测器 皖江流域 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon storage InVEST model Geodetector Wanjiang River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250643 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究土地利用时空演变给生态系统碳储量带来的影响，对全球达成减排增汇目标具有积极的反馈意义. 依据2000~2020年3期土地利用数据，并结合InVEST模型对皖江流域碳储量的时空变化加以分析，运用PLUS模型预测皖江流域2040年的自然发展、城镇保护、耕地保护和生态保护这4种情景，进而估算不同情景中生态系统的碳储量. 结果显示：①土地利用变化直接影响研究区的碳储量. 在2000~2020年期间，耕地、草地和未利用地的面积依次降低了1 096.73、5.92和4.55 km2，林地、水域和建设用地的面积各自增加了48.9、69.68和988.6 km2. 碳储量减少2.84×106 t，碳储量与土地利用空间分布一致，碳储量较高区域的建设用地少、生态用地集聚连片且分布较多. ②2040年多情景模拟显示，整体土地利用格局一致，局部变化明显. 自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护情景中碳储量分别下降2.485×106、2.513×<106 t，其中在耕地保护情景下，碳储量下降最少0.029×106 t. ③碳储量空间分异主要受气候因素影响. 地理探测器表明，年平均降水（0.139）解释力最高，是皖江流域碳储量空间分异的主要驱动因子. 植被净初级生产力与年平均降水的协同影响类型（0.382）最强. 研究结果表明，采取耕地保护和生态保护政策可控制碳储量减少，在未来规划中，应保护生态用地，控制建设用地扩张，以提高碳储量水平. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the impact of space-time-evolution of land use on ecosystem carbon reserves has positive feedback significance for the global emission reduction and foreign exchange increase target. Based on three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020， combined with the InVEST model， the spatiotemporal changes of carbon storage in Wanjiang River Basin were analyzed. The PLUS model was used to predict the four scenarios of natural development， urban protection， farmland protection， and ecological protection in Wanjiang River Basin in 2040， and the carbon storage of the ecosystem in different scenarios was estimated. The results show that： ① Land use change directly affected the carbon storage of the study area. Between 2000 and 2020， the area of cultivated land， grassland， and unused land decreased by 1 096.73 km2， 5.92 km2， and 4.55 km2， respectively， while the area of forest land， water bodies， and construction land increased by 48.9 km2， 69.68 km2， and 988.6 km2， respectively. The carbon storage decreased by 2.84×106 t， and the distribution of carbon storage was consistent with the spatial distribution of land use. Areas with higher carbon storage had less construction land and more concentrated and distributed ecological land. ②The multi-scenario simulation for 2040 showed that the overall land use pattern was consistent， with significant local changes. In the scenarios of natural development， urban development， and ecological protection， carbon storage decreased by 2.485×106 t， 2.513×106 t， and 0.749×106 t， respectively. Among them， in the scenario of farmland protection， carbon storage decreased by at least 0.029×106 t. ③ The spatial differentiation of carbon storage was mainly influenced by climate factors. The geographic detector indicated that the annual average precipitation （0.139） had the highest explanatory power and was the main driving factor for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Wanjiang River Basin. The synergistic impact type （0.382） between vegetation net primary productivity and annual average precipitation was the strongest. The reduction of carbon reserves can be controlled by adopting the policy of farmland protection and ecological protection. In future planning， ecological land should be protected， and the expansion of construction land should be controlled to improve the level of carbon reserves. |
