| 粮食主产区（河南省）耕地NPP时空分异特征及影响因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 1406 全文点击 74 投稿时间：2024-06-05 修订日期：2024-08-07 |
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| 中文关键词 粮食主产区 耕地利用 净初级生产力（NPP） 时空分异 影响因素 河南省 |
| 英文关键词 major grain producing areas cultivated land use net primary productivity（NPP） temporal and spatial differentiation influencing factors Henan Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250628 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 作为粮食生产的物质基础，耕地的数量和质量直接关系到耕地生产力的稳定，进而影响粮食的有效供应和粮食安全. 河南省作为全国粮食生产核心区，为保障国家粮食安全，提出了落实国家农业产业空间布局，因地制宜地制定耕地分区管控的策略. 然而，由于缺少对耕地生产力时空演变等方面的研究，目前仍无法克服以行政区划作为调控单元的现实不足. 因此，探究河南省耕地利用的时空分异特征及耕地生产力变化的影响因素，从而科学制定耕地分区管控策略，对落实国家主体功能区战略格局，守牢国土空间安全底线，保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义. 基于此，依托中国年度土地覆盖数据集构建耕地利用转移矩阵，并引入耕地景观格局指数，评估河南省耕地空间在2000~2020年的时空分异特征，进而分析其变化原因. 同时，利用净初级生产力（NPP）数据集，采用Theil-Sen Median+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Hurst指数分析、变异系数分析、偏相关分析以及偏相关系数等方法，探究河南省耕地生产力演变规律并量化区分气候因素及人类活动对耕地生产力的影响. 结果表明：①受城镇建设用地扩张加之耕地调控政策及重大工程的影响，研究期内转出耕地面积远大于转入耕地面积，耕地主要转出为建设用地，且作为河南省内粮食主产区的黄淮海平原及南阳盆地的耕地波动较大. ②研究期内转入转出耕地的细碎程度显著上升. 从空间分布上来看，转入耕地相对于转出耕地更为细碎，呈现出转出集中且紧邻建设用地、转入零星细碎的空间变化特征. ③耕地NPP年际分布表现出显著差异性，南高北低. 年际变化趋势逐渐增大（4.23 g·m-2·a-1，以C计，下同），年均值介于78.16~1 080.58 g·m-2·a-1之间. ④研究期内96.61%耕地NPP呈增长态势，但不同上升幅度在研究区内呈现明显空间异质性，未来增长可能呈放缓或退化趋势. ⑤气候因素中太阳辐射对耕地NPP变化的贡献更为显著. 整体上，人类活动促使研究区内耕地NPP的累积，但在空间上存在差异. 耕地NPP减少区域占比为1.76%且较为集中，主要因人类活动主导的建设空间扩张导致. 同时，研究发现耕地NPP减少区域边缘地带受气候主导影响反而呈增加趋势. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As an important cornerstone of grain production， the fluctuation of the quantity and quality of cultivated land resources is directly related to the stability of grain production， which in turn affects the effective supply of grain and food security. In recent years， in the face of the pressure of food demand caused by population growth， China has promoted cultivated land protection as a basic national policy and formulated and implemented a series of strategies for cultivated land protection and balanced control. Because of this， as the world's largest developing country， China has successfully fed 22 % of the world's population with only approximately 9 % of the world's arable land resources. However， factors such as urban construction land expansion， land degradation， and climate change still pose severe challenges to agricultural production. Henan Province， as the core area of national grain production， or ‘China granary'， plays an important role. In order to ensure national food security， Henan Province has put forward the agricultural space development strategy of implementing the spatial layout of the national agricultural industry， improving the scale and intensive level of grain production， and guiding the development of agricultural modernization. At the specific implementation level， it is key to formulate relevant cultivated land zoning control strategies according to local conditions. However， due to the lack of research on the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land productivity， it is still impossible to get rid of the reality of taking administrative divisions as the control unit. Therefore， it is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of cultivated land use in Henan Province and the influencing factors of cultivated land productivity changes， so as to scientifically formulate the control strategy of cultivated land zoning， to implement the strategic pattern of national main functional areas， to keep the bottom line of land space security， and to ensure national food security. Based on this， this study constructs the transfer matrix of cultivated land use based on China's annual land cover data set and introduces the landscape pattern index of cultivated land to evaluate the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of cultivated land space in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020， and then the reasons for its change were analyzed. At the same time， using the net primary production （NPP） data set， Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall trend analysis， Hurst index analysis， coefficient of variation analysis， partial correlation analysis， and partial correlation coefficient were used to explore the evolution of cultivated land productivity in Henan Province and quantify the impact of climate factors and human activities on cultivated land productivity. The results show that： ① Based on the expansion of urban construction land combined with the impact of cultivated land regulation policies and major projects， the area of cultivated land transferred out during the study period was much larger than the area of cultivated land transferred in， and the cultivated land was mainly transferred out for construction land， and the cultivated land in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Nanyang Basin， as the main grain producing areas in Henan Province， fluctuated greatly. ② During the study period， the degree of fragmentation of the transferred cultivated land increased significantly. From the perspective of spatial distribution， the transferred-in cultivated land was more fragmented than the transferred-out cultivated land， showing the spatial variation characteristics of concentrated transfer-out and close to construction land and sporadic transfer-in. ③ The interannual distribution of cultivated land NPP showed significant differences， namely， high in the south and low in the north. The interannual variation trend gradually increased （4.23 g·m-2·a-1， calculated by C， the same below）， and the annual average value was between 78.16 and 1 080.58 g·m-2·a-1. ④ During the study period， 96.61 % of the cultivated land NPP showed an increasing trend， but the different growth rates showed obvious spatial heterogeneity in the study area， and the future growth may slow down or degrade. ⑤ The contribution of solar radiation to the change of NPP in cultivated land was more significant in climate factors. On the whole， human activities promoted the accumulation of NPP in cultivated land in the study area， but there were differences in space. The area of NPP reduction in cultivated land accounted for 1.76% and was relatively concentrated， mainly due to the expansion of urban construction space dominated by human activities. At the same time， the study found that the marginal area of cultivated land NPP reduction was affected by climate but showed an increasing trend. |
