| 2000~2020年陕西省植被动态对气候变化和人类活动的响应 |
| 摘要点击 849 全文点击 85 投稿时间：2024-05-15 修订日期：2024-07-22 |
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| 中文关键词 植被动态 气候变化 人类活动 随机森林模型 贡献率 |
| 英文关键词 vegetation dynamics climate change human activities random forest model contribution rate |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250627 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 植被在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下发生显著变化，厘清两者对植被变化的影响对环境资源管理具有重要意义. 基于2000~2020年MODIS NDVI数据和气象数据，并结合土地覆盖数据表征人类活动强度（HAI），采用趋势分析、Hurst指数、偏相关分析、双变量空间自相关和随机森林模型的方法，从陕西省整体及3个地区（陕北地区、关中地区和陕南地区）分别探究了气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的影响机制和贡献率. 结果表明：①2000~2020年，陕西省NDVI平均值为0.71，呈陕南>关中>陕北的空间格局. 研究时段全省及3个地区NDVI均呈上升趋势，植被明显改善的面积在全省占比高达87.1%，其中32.7%的区域改善趋势可持续，陕北地区植被改善最明显. ②NDVI 对不同气候因子的响应有所差异，降水和平均气温对植被的影响以促进作用为主，太阳辐射则为抑制作用. ③2000~2020年，陕西省HAI平均值为0.06，呈关中>陕北>陕南的空间格局. 研究时段全省及3个地区HAI均呈上升趋势. HAI变化趋势与NDVI变化趋势表现为空间负相关，关中、陕北、陕南3个地区的主要聚集模式分别为“高-低”、“低-高”和“低-低”聚集. ④陕西省气候变化和人类活动下NDVI的变化速率分别为0.005 4 a-1和0.000 5 a-1，贡献率分别为91.5%和8.5%. 气候变化对植被变化在3个地区均表现为正贡献，其中陕北地区贡献最高. 人类活动在陕北地区和陕南地区均表现为正贡献，陕北地区贡献最高，在关中地区表现为负贡献. 陕西省植被动态受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响，不同地区的影响机制存在差异，需因地制宜地制定科学的生态保护方案. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Clarifying the impacts of climate changes and human activities on vegetation dynamics is of significant importance to environmental resource managements， as vegetation undergoes notable changes under the dual influences of the two factors. Based on MODIS NDVI data， meteorological data， and human activity intensity （HAI） characterized by land cover data from 2000 to 2020， this study used methods such as trend analysis， Hurst index， partial correlation analysis， bivariate spatial autocorrelation， and random forest modeling. The impact mechanisms and contributions of climate changes and human activities on vegetation dynamics in Shaanxi Province as a whole and in its three regions （northern Shaanxi， central Shaanxi， and southern Shaanxi） were investigated. The results showed as follows： ① From 2000 to 2020， the average NDVI value in Shaanxi Province was 0.71， with a higher value in southern Shaanxi， followed by those in central and northern Shaanxi. During the study period， the overall NDVI of Shaanxi Province and its three regions showed an increasing trend， with a significant improvement in vegetation covering 87.1% of the area， of which 32.7% had a sustainable improvement trend. The most noticeable improvement in vegetation was observed in northern Shaanxi. ② The NDVI responded differently to various climatic factors. Precipitation and average temperature primarily promoted vegetation， while solar radiation had an inhibitory effect. ③ From 2000 to 2020， the average HAI value in Shaanxi Province was 0.06， with a higher value in central Shaanxi， followed by those in northern and southern Shaanxi， and exhibited an increasing trend over time. The cluster patterns were mainly described as high-low， low-high， and low-low in the northern， central， and southern Shaanxi regions， respectively. ④ The NDVI change rates under climate change and human activities were 0.005 4 a-1 and 0.000 5 a-1， respectively， with their contribution rate being 91.5% and 8.5%， in Shaanxi Province. In the three regions， climate change contributed positively to vegetation change， with the highest contribution observed in northern Shaanxi. Human activities contributed positively in northern and southern Shaanxi， with the highest contribution in northern Shaanxi， while in the central region， human activities showed a negative contribution. The vegetation dynamics in Shaanxi Province were influenced by both climate change and human activities， but the impact mechanisms varied across different regions. It is essential to develop scientifically tailored ecological protection plans based on the specific conditions of each region. |
