| 黄河流域土地利用碳排放与生态系统服务价值时空耦合及影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 922 全文点击 95 投稿时间：2024-04-14 修订日期：2024-07-22 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用碳排放 生态系统服务价值（ESV） 时空耦合 影响因素 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon emissions ecosystem service value （ESV） spatial-temporal coupling influencing factor Yellow River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250620 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 人类经济活动引发的土地利用剧变深刻影响着碳排放与生态系统服务价值（ESV）. 为探究碳排放与ESV时空尺度上的演变特征，基于2000~2020年黄河流域土地利用数据，利用空间自相关和多元Logit回归模型等方法，研究黄河流域县域碳排放总量和ESV的时空特征及空间相关性，并探讨空间相关性的影响因素. 结果发现：①20 a间流域内土地利用碳排放总量整体呈增长态势，不断增加的县域集中分布在内蒙古、宁夏和陕西北部等能源丰富地区；ESV总量的变化则是先升后降，高值县域主要分布在黄河流域的边缘，低值县域主要位于山东半岛城市群、中原城市群、关中平原城市群和宁夏沿黄城市群等经济活跃地区. ②碳排放总量与ESV总量之间存在空间负相关；碳排放量高-ESV高类的县域数量一直在增加，主要分布在内蒙古南部、宁夏东部和陕西北部，与区位临近黄河和能源开发有关；双低类主要位于黄土高原沟壑区，从东西端连为条带状；低高类连片分布在青海、四川和甘肃西部，部分呈岛状分布于双低类周围；高-低类数量逐年增加，主要位于核心城市区域. ③同时位于ESV低值区域时，经济发展水平越好和能源消耗效率越低的地区土地利用碳排放量会显著提升；同时位于低土地利用碳排放区域时，ESV值更高的地区人口分布更加聚集，而土地垦殖率的提高会侵占能提供较高生态系统服务的林草地，降低区域生态系统服务价值. 结论对于黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展决策具有一定的借鉴意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The dramatic changes in land use caused by human economic activities have a profound impact on carbon emissions and ecosystem service value （ESV）. In order to explore the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions and ESV on the spatial and temporal scales， based on the land use data of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020， this study used spatial autocorrelation and multivariate Logit regression models to study the spatial and temporal characteristics and spatial correlation of total carbon emissions and ESV in counties of the Yellow River Basin， then to explore the influencing factors of spatial correlation. The research findings were as follows： ① In the past 20 years， the total amount of land use carbon emissions in the basin has shown an overall growth trend， and the increasing counties were concentrated in energy-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia， Ningxia， and northern Shaanxi. The total amount of ESV increased first and then decreased， and the high value counties were mainly distributed on the edge of the Yellow River Basin， among which Qumalai County in Qinghai Province had the most ESV. The low value counties of ESV were mainly located in the economically active urban agglomerations such as the Shandong Peninsula Region， Central Plains Region， Guanzhong Plains Region， and cities along the yellow river in Ningxia. The lowest value of ESV has always been located in Xi'an. ② There was a spatial negative correlation between total carbon emissions and total ESV. The number of counties with high carbon emissions and high ESV has been increasing， mainly distributed in southern Inner Mongolia， eastern Ningxia， and northern Shaanxi， which was related to the location near the Yellow River and energy development. The double low type was mainly located in the gully area of the Loess Plateau， which is connected to the strip from the east and west. The low-high class was contiguously distributed in Qinghai， Sichuan， and western Gansu， and some were island-like distributed around the double-low class. The number of high-low classes was increasing year by year， mainly located in the core city area. ③ In low ESV counties， regions with better economic development and higher population were more likely to increase their carbon emissions. Taking the low carbon emissions from land use as a reference， the per capita GDP， energy use efficiency， and rainfall were significantly negatively correlated with the high-high and high-low categories. This indicates that most counties with high carbon emissions had relatively dense populations and less rainfall， resulting in higher energy dependence. Additionally， there was a positive correlation between low-high class areas and total population. When located in areas with low land use carbon emissions， areas with higher ESV values tended to have more a concentrated population distribution. The increase in land reclamation rate may encroach on forests and grasslands that can provide higher ecosystem services， reducing the value of regional ecosystem services. The research findings have certain reference significance for ecological protection and high-quality development decision-making in the Yellow River Basin. |
