| 中国环境规制对电力行业碳排放的影响 |
| 摘要点击 861 全文点击 100 投稿时间：2024-04-11 修订日期：2024-07-19 |
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| 中文关键词 环境规制 电力行业碳排放 时空格局 影响效应 GTWR模型 |
| 英文关键词 environmental regulation power sector carbon emissions spatio-temporal patterns influence effect GTWR model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20250617 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 电力行业碳排放是中国碳排放的主要来源，环境规制作为碳减排的基本约束手段发挥着不可替代的作用. 基于中国2003~2019年省级面板数据，在测算不同类型环境规制强度与电力行业碳排放量的基础上，采用核密度估计、标准差椭圆对二者的时空特征进行分析；其后通过构建时空地理加权回归模型，探讨命令型、市场型和自愿型环境规制对电力行业碳排放的影响. 结果表明：①对不同类型环境规制而言，时间上，市场型环境规制核密度曲线呈现出“向右移动”的运动轨迹，区域间差异呈扩大态势，命令型和自愿型环境规制区域间差异呈缩减态势；空间上，命令型环境规制逐渐呈西北-东南空间分布格局，市场型和自愿型环境规制均呈东北-西南空间分布格局. ②对电力行业碳排放而言，时间上，核密度曲线表现出“向右移动”的运动轨迹，区域间差异呈扩大态势；空间上，逐渐呈西北-东南空间分布格局，且重心向西北地区迁移. ③不同类型环境规制对电力行业碳排放的影响具有明显的时空异质性. 时间上，多数省（市、自治区）命令型环境规制回归系数呈先增大后减小的趋势，市场型、自愿型环境规制回归系数呈先减小后增大的趋势；空间上，3种环境规制作用的空间异质性明显，命令型环境规制逐渐对北方各省影响较大（促进），市场型环境规制对中东部各省影响较大（促进），自愿型环境规制对东部各省影响较大（抑制）. |
| 英文摘要 |
| CO2 emissions from the power sector are the main source of CO2 emissions in China， and environmental regulation plays an irreplaceable role as a basic constraint for reducing carbon emissions. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2003-2019， this study analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of different types of environmental regulatory intensity and CO2 emissions from the power sector by using kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipses. Then， the geographically and temporally weighted regression model is constructed to explore the impacts of command-based， market-based， and voluntary environmental regulations on CO2 emissions in the power industry. The results showed the following： ① For different types of environmental regulation： in time， the market-based environmental regulation kernel density curves showed a “rightward” motion， with interregional differences expanding， while command-based and voluntary environmental regulation showed a shrinking interregional difference； in space， command-based environmental regulation gradually followed a northwest-southeast spatial distribution pattern. Market-based and voluntary environmental regulation all showed a northeast-southwest spatial distribution pattern. ② For CO2 emissions from the power sector： in time， kernel density curves showed a “rightward” motion， with inter-regional differences expanding； in space， there was a gradual pattern of northwest-southeast spatial distribution pattern， and the center of gravity was moving to the northwest. ③ The impact of different types of environmental regulations on CO2 emissions in the power sector had obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In time， the regression coefficient of command-based environmental regulation in most provinces （cities， autonomous regions） had an increasing and subsequently declining trend， while market-based and voluntary environmental regulation decreased first and then increased. In space， spatial heterogeneity in the role of the three types of environmental regulation was evident； command-based environmental regulation gradually had a greater impact on the northern provinces （facilitation）， market-based environmental regulation had a greater impact on the central-eastern provinces （facilitation）， and voluntary environmental regulation had a greater impact on the eastern provinces （disincentive）. |
