| 基于LEAP模型的山西省能源活动领域碳达峰路径 |
| 摘要点击 208 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2024-03-25 修订日期：2024-06-19 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 能源活动 山西省 碳达峰 碳减排 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model energy activities Shanxi Province carbon peaking carbon reduction |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 贾晶迪 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | jiajingdidi@163.com | | 王飞 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | | | 张圆圆 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | | | 成怀刚 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | | | 吴海滨 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | | | 高阳艳 | 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006
山西大学CO2减排与资源化利用教育部工程研究中心, 太原 030006 | gaoyangyan@sxu.edu.cn |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| “双碳”目标背景下,针对山西省能源活动碳达峰路径进行模拟开展省级层面的减排措施和政策研究,对处于资源型经济演进阶段的山西省来说刻不容缓.以山西省能源活动领域碳排放为核算范围,2020年为基准年建立LEAP模型,在此基础上外推至2060年,模拟计算了山西省碳排放量,及其未来40 a内的动态演变趋势.基准情景下,山西省预计在2030年之前难以实现碳达峰；同步达峰情景下,2030年能源消费总量（以标煤计）预计为411.26×106 t,碳排放量为（以CO2计）751.05×106 t,有望达到碳排放峰值；引领达峰情景下,碳达峰时间将提前至2028年,届时能源消费总量预计为399.03×106 t,碳排放量将达到675.22×106 t.此外,在基准情景下,单位GDP能耗强度与单位GDP碳排放强度若要如期实现达峰的目标有一定难度,但通过采用更加节能高效的设备和技术、积极推动可再生能源的发展、降低对化石燃料的依赖程度等措施,可有效地降低能源消耗和碳排放量.在同步达峰情景与引领达峰情景的设想中,均能够成功达成《山西省国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》中所设定的约束性指标,显示出山西省在积极应对气候变化和推动绿色发展的道路上具备实现既定目标的能力和潜力. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the background of the “dual carbon” goal, Shanxi Province must crucially simulate the carbon peak path of energy activities in Shanxi Province and carry out provincial-level emission reduction measures and policy research, which is in the stage of evolution of resource-based economy. Taking the carbon emissions of energy activities in Shanxi Province as the accounting scope, the LEAP model was established in 2020 as the base year and on this basis, the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province were simulated and calculated to 2060 and its dynamic evolution trend over the next 40 years was simulated. Under the baseline scenario, Shanxi Province may find it difficult to peak carbon emissions before 2030. Under the synchronous peak scenario, the total energy consumption （in terms of standard coal） may be 411.26 million tons in 2030 and the carbon emissions （in terms of CO2） may reach the peak of carbon emissions and under the leading peak scenario, the carbon peak time will be advanced to 2028, when the total energy consumption is expected to be 399.03 million tons, and carbon emissions will reach 675.22 million tons. In addition, under the baseline scenario, achieving the goal of peaking energy intensity per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP as scheduled will be difficult； however, measures, such as adopting more energy-efficient equipment and technologies, actively promoting the development of renewable energy, and reducing dependence on fossil fuels can effectively reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. In both the simultaneous and leading peak scenarios, the binding targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan can be successfully achieved, demonstrating that Shanxi Province has the ability and potential to achieve the set goals on the road of actively responding to climate change and promoting green development. To achieve this goal, Shanxi Province needs to further strengthen policy guidance and market mechanism construction, encourage enterprises, and all sectors of society to actively participate in the process of energy consumption and transformation. In particular, investment and research and development in renewable energy must be increased； the innovation and application of clean energy technologies, promoted； and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, accelerated. Simultaneously, strengthening the optimization and adjustment of the energy consumption structure and promoting the transformation of energy consumption to a green and low-carbon direction are necessary. |
|
|
|
