| 北方县城家庭碳排放影响因素及减排成本分析：以河北丰宁县为例 |
| 摘要点击 2586 全文点击 486 投稿时间：2023-11-11 修订日期：2024-02-20 |
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| 中文关键词 家庭能耗 碳排放 影响因素 减排成本 北方县城 |
| 英文关键词 household energy consumption carbon emissions influencing factors carbon abatement costs northern county |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20241121 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 居民生活水平的提高带来家庭碳排放的快速增长,提升对家庭碳排放特征的高精度阐释对推动城镇能源转型和减碳政策的落实具有重要意义. 基于入户调研数据和联合国气候变化组织推出的“个人气候行动碳足迹计算器”,测算河北省丰宁县家庭碳排放,同时运用Lasso回归、随机森林模型分析相关因素对家庭碳排放的影响并计算了不同措施下的家庭碳减排成本. 结果表明：①家庭碳排放的组成部分中,能源消费、交通出行、购物和饮食习惯分别占比33.36%、15.14%、23.81%和27.90%；②影响因素根据重要性从高到低依次是私家汽车类型、采暖方式、购买能效标识电器倾向、家庭规模、电力消费量和天然气消费量,家庭选用新能源汽车、采用集中供暖和倾向购买能效标识电器均可有效降低家庭碳排放；家庭规模的扩大和电力、天然气消费量的增加对于家庭碳排放的影响则是波动变化的. ③不同节能减碳措施的成本效益相差较大. 对于县城家庭,选用高能效电器和绿色出行的单位减碳成本最低；居民建筑节能改造的碳减排量最高；能源替代的减碳量显著,但单位减碳成本最高. 依据提出的节能减碳措施,整县年碳排放量潜力可达52.67万t. 其中,能源替代、建筑节能改造、家电升级和绿色出行的减碳占比分别为17.81%、54.07%、2.52%和25.59%. |
| 英文摘要 |
| With the economic development and the pace of urbanization, the rising living standard of the urban population has been accompanied with the increase in household carbon emissions in China, and it is of importance to understand the characteristics of the carbon emissions in order to support green energy transitions and sustainable development. Based on the household survey data and using the "Lifestyle calculator-for individuals" developed by the United Nations Climate Change Organization, this study analyzes urban household carbon emissions in Fengning County, Hebei Province, a typical county in North China. We applied the Lasso regression and Random Forest Models （RFMs）, assessing the impacts of relevant factors on household emissions. Through techno-economic analysis, we estimated the costs of various emission reduction measures. RThe results revealed that household carbon emissions were mostly related to energy use, transport, shopping, and dining, which accounted for 33.36%, 15.14%, 23.81%, and 27.90% of the total emissions, respectively. The factors affecting the household emission level included： the means of transport, household heating, efficiency of home appliances, household size, and the amount of electricity and natural gas consumed. Using new energy vehicles, centralized heating and energy-efficient appliances could cut carbon emissions significantly. In terms of the costs of emission abatement of different measures, choosing energy-efficient appliances and green transport were among the lowest-cost options； building energy-saving retrofitting could result in the highest reduction, and energy substitution required the highest investment. The emission reduction potential in Fengning was assessed, and discussions were made to draw policy recommendations supporting emission reduction in the household sector and facilitate low-carbon and green lifestyle development in Chinese counties. |
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