| 基于Catboost模型的广东省近地面NO2浓度估算 |
| 摘要点击 2052 全文点击 379 投稿时间：2023-12-05 修订日期：2024-02-28 |
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| 中文关键词 近地面NO2 Sentinel-5P 近实时二氧化氮 Catboost模型 时空分布 |
| 英文关键词 near-surface NO2 Sentinel-5P near-real-time nitrogen dioxide Catboost model spatial and temporal distribution |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20241108 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 氮氧化物（NOx）是大气中的一类重要空气污染物,二氧化氮（NO2）是其主要组成部分之一,NO2浓度的监测和估算对于环境保护和公共健康至关重要. 使用Sentinel-5P大气污染监测卫星提供的近实时二氧化氮浓度数据（NRTI NO2）、ERA5气象再分析数据和DEM数据作为估算变量,基于Catboost模型,对广东省近地面NO2浓度进行估算. 结果表明：①Catboost模型估算的近地面NO2浓度精度最高,其模型拟合的决定系数（R2）、均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）分别达到0.91、4.89 μg·m-3和3.45 μg·m-3,交叉验证R2、RMSE和MAE分别达到0.90、4.91 μg·m-3和3.43 μg·m-3,同时在月尺度和季尺度也具有良好的稳定性. ②广东省近地面NO2月均浓度总体上呈先降后升的“U”型趋势,1月的NO2浓度最高,最高值为43.8 μg·m-3,7月达到最低点,最低值为14.37 μg·m-3. 近地面NO2季均浓度存在“冬高夏低,春秋过渡”的季节分布特征,各季节NO2浓度大小依次为：冬季（27.53 μg·m-3）>春季（20.77 μg·m-3）>秋季（18.77 μg·m-3）>夏季（14.85 μg·m-3）. ③从空间分布角度看,广东省近地面NO2高值地区主要位于发展迅速且人口密集的地区,而低值地区主要分布在注重港口经济、农业和新能源等领域的地区. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Nitrogen oxide （NOx） is an important air pollutant in the atmosphere, and nitrogen dioxide （NO2） is one of its main components. The monitoring and estimation of NO2 concentration is very important for environmental protection and public health. The near-real-time nitrogen dioxide concentration data （NRTI NO2）, ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data, and DEM data provided by Sentinel-5P atmospheric pollution monitoring satellite were used as estimation variables to estimate the near-surface NO2 concentration in Guangdong Province based on the Catboost model. The results showed that： ① The Catboost model estimated the near-surface NO2 concentration with the highest accuracy, with the coefficient of determination （R2）, root mean square error （RMSE）, and mean absolute error （MAE） of the model fit reaching 0.91, 4.89 μg·m-3, and 3.45 μg·m-3 and the cross-validated R2, RMSE, and MAE reaching 0.90, 4.91 μg·m-3, and 3.43 μg·m-3, with good stability on the monthly and quarterly scales. ② The monthly average NO2 concentration near the surface of Guangdong Province showed a U-shaped trend, with the highest value of 43.8 μg·m-3 in January and the lowest value of 14.37 μg·m-3 in July. The seasonal distribution of the near-surface NO2 concentration was characterized by “high during winter and low during summer and transitional during spring and autumn,” and the NO2 concentration in each season was in the following order： winter （27.53 μg·m-3） > spring （20.77 μg·m-3） > autumn （18.77 μg·m-3） > summer （14.85 μg·m-3）. ③ From a spatial distribution perspective, areas with high near-surface NO2 values in Guangdong Province were mainly located in rapidly developing and densely populated areas, while areas with low values were mainly distributed in areas focusing on port economy, agriculture, and new energy sources. |
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