| 基于LEAP模型的“零碳”电厂建设路径 |
| 摘要点击 1432 全文点击 310 投稿时间：2023-11-01 修订日期：2024-01-09 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 “零碳”电厂 LEAP模型 碳减排 碳中和 减排潜力 |
| 英文关键词 “zero-carbon” power plant LEAP modeling carbon emission reduction carbon neutrality emission reducing potential |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 电力行业是首要的碳排放行业,在“双碳”目标提出的背景下,加强“零碳”电厂建设路径研究尤为重要.以某国有发电企业为例,基于电厂近几年碳排放情况,结合其能源结构、地理气候条件等构建了LEAP模型,设置基准情景、能源结构调整情景、技术进步情景和综合情景,分析了各情景下能源消费需求,并预测各情景下未来碳排放量.结果表明,2060年,在能源结构调整和技术进步情景下发电部门碳排放总量较基准情景分别下降75.97%和54.55%,证明清洁能源替代碳减排潜力大,火电机组灵活性改造及升级更换超超临界发电机组可降低煤耗减少碳排放量,同时发展CCUS技术意义重大,建设CCUS项目是在保留一定火电规模下实现电厂碳中和的必要条件.在综合情景下,在2056年左右电厂可实现“零碳”排放.研究成果可为“零碳”电厂建设提供思路. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As the power industry is the primary carbon emission industry, the research on the construction path of “zero-carbon” power plants against the background of the “dual-carbon” goal must be strengthened. Considering a state-owned power generation enterprise as an example, based on the carbon emissions of the power plant in recent years, the LEAP model was constructed by combining its energy structure and geographical and climatic conditions and the baseline, energy structure adjustment, technological progress, and comprehensive scenarios were set up. The energy consumption demand under each scenario was analyzed and the future carbon emissions under each scenario were predicted. The results showed that in 2060, the total carbon emissions from the power generation sector under the technological progress and energy structure adjustment scenarios decrease by 54.55% and 75.97% compared with those in the baseline scenario, respectively, which demonstrated the large potential for carbon emission reduction from clean energy substitution and that the flexibility transformation of thermal power units and the upgrading and replacement of ultra-supercritical generating units could reduce coal consumption and decrease carbon emissions, whereas the development of CCUS technology was significant, and the construction of CCUS projects was a necessary condition for realizing carbon neutrality of power plants while retaining a certain scale of thermal power generation. Under a comprehensive scenario, “zero carbon” emissions from power plants could be realized around 2056. The results of the study provide ideas for the construction of “zero carbon” power plants. |
|
|
|
