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石羊河流域多情景土地利用优化及碳储量评估
摘要点击 443  全文点击 110  投稿时间:2023-08-02  修订日期:2023-10-08
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中文关键词  PLUS-InVEST模型  石羊河流域  土地利用  碳储量  多情景
英文关键词  PLUS-InVEST model  Shiyang River Basin  land use  carbon reserves  multiple scenarios
作者单位E-mail
杜怀玉 西北师范大学社会发展与公共管理学院, 兰州 730300 duhuaiyu@nwnu.edu.cn 
俞金凤 西北师范大学社会发展与公共管理学院, 兰州 730300  
张媛 西北师范大学社会发展与公共管理学院, 兰州 730300  
王家亮 西北师范大学社会发展与公共管理学院, 兰州 730300  
中文摘要
      研究碳储量与土地利用变化的响应关系及空间分布特征,预测未来土地利用类型变化所导致的碳储量变化趋势,可为流域政策制定、土地利用结构调整和“双碳”目标的实现提供一定的借鉴. 基于2000年、2010年和2020年三期土地利用数据,运用InVEST模型和PLUS模型,开展石羊河流域2000~2020年间和2030年自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护这3种情景下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响研究. 研究发现:①2000~2020年石羊河流域主要土地利用类型是耕地、草地和未利用地,且耕地、水域和建设用地的面积呈增加趋势,其中建设用地面积增幅最大. ②较2020年,2030年自然发展情景下,耕地、水域和建设用地面积均有所增加,分别增加6.15%、9.56%和29.9%;在城镇发展情景下,建设用地面积增加最多;相比其他两种情景,在生态保护情景下林地和草地面积出现了增加. ③石羊河流域2000~2020年碳储量呈平稳增加的趋势,20年间增加了0.035×108 t,主要源于耕地面积的增加. ④2030年自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护3种情景下石羊河流域的碳储量分别为5.65×108、5.64×108和5.73×108 t,较2020年均有增加,其中生态保护情景下碳储量增加最多,主要是源于草地和林地面积的增加. 研究结果表明建设用地的扩张是造成碳储量流失的主要原因,若采取有效的生态保护措施将有助提高流域碳储量,可以解决由于经济发展而导致的碳储量流失问题.
英文摘要
      Studying the response relationship and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon reserve and land use change and predicting the change trend of carbon reserve caused by the change of land use type in the future can provide some reference for watershed policy formulation, land use structure adjustment, and the realization of the "two-carbon" goal. Based on the land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the InVEST model was used to calculate carbon reserves and analyze the change characteristics and to simulate the land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in natural development, urban development, and ecological protection in 2030 with the help of the PLUS model. The study found that ① the main land types in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 were cultivated land, grassland, and unused land. The area of cultivated land, water area, and construction land in the Shiyang River Basin showed a significant increasing trend, and the construction land area increased the most. ② In the natural development scenario of 2030, cultivated land, water area, and construction all increased by 6.15%, 9.56%, and 29.9%, respectively. In the urban development scenario, the area of construction land increased the most. Compared with that in the other two scenarios, the area of forest land and grassland increased in the ecological protection scenarios. ③ The carbon reserves of the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a steady increase, with an overall increase of 0.035×108 t. The increased carbon reserves were mainly due to the increase in cultivated land area. ④ In 2030, the carbon reserves of the Shiyang River Basin showed an increasing trend in all three scenarios. The carbon reserves in the three scenarios were 5.65×108, 5.64×108,and 5.73×108 t, respectively, with the largest increase in carbon reserves in the ecological conservation scenario, mainly due to the increase in grassland and woodland. The results showed that the expansion of construction land was the main cause of the loss of carbon reserves. If effective ecological protection measures are taken, the carbon reserves in the Shiyang River Basin will be improved, and the problem of the loss of carbon reserves caused by economic development can be solved.

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