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2013~2020年甘肃省PM2.5健康负担的时空变化趋势及驱动力
摘要点击 503  全文点击 100  投稿时间:2023-08-08  修订日期:2023-10-07
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中文关键词  PM2.5  过早死亡  GEMM模型  驱动因素  健康效益
英文关键词  PM2.5  premature mortality  GEMM model  driving factor  health benefits
作者单位E-mail
廖琴 兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 兰州 730000 
liaoqin@llas.ac.cn 
李勇 贵州医科大学环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室, 贵阳 550025  
陶燕 兰州大学资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000 taoyan@lzu.edu.cn 
中文摘要
      为评估大气污染防治行动计划以来,甘肃省PM2.5相关健康影响的时空变化趋势及其驱动因素,应用最新的全球暴露死亡模型(GEMM)估算了2013~2020年甘肃省归因于PM2.5的健康负担,并通过因素分解法进一步探讨了PM2.5归因死亡长期变化的主要原因. 结果表明,2013~2020年,甘肃省人口加权PM2.5浓度下降了34.57%,暴露于PM2.5年均浓度超过35 μg·m-3的人口比例从72.89%大幅下降至11.61%. 研究期间,甘肃省PM2.5归因死亡人数从12 826(95%CI:7 840~17 408)人下降至9 814(95%CI:6 407~13 036)人,下降了23.48%;其中,缺血性心脏病的归因死亡人数有所增加(12.11%),而中风、慢性阻塞性肺病、肺癌和下呼吸道感染的归因死亡人数呈下降趋势;60岁及以上人群的归因死亡人数占80%以上;中东部地区的PM2.5归因死亡人数显著高于河西地区,且大部分地区呈下降趋势;人口规模、年龄结构、基线死亡率和PM2.5浓度在归因死亡人数变化中的贡献分别为-1.26%、16.16%、 -9.84%和-28.55%,人口老龄化和PM2.5浓度降低是PM2.5归因死亡增加和减少的主要因素. 甘肃省积极的清洁空气政策减轻了PM2.5污染造成的健康负担,但在人口老龄化加剧的趋势下,未来需要大幅降低PM2.5浓度才能避免更多的归因死亡.
英文摘要
      To evaluate the spatiotemporal trends and drivers of PM2.5-related health effects in Gansu Province since the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the latest global exposure mortality model (GEMM) was adopted to estimate the health burden attributable to PM2.5 in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2020. The factor decomposition method was used to further quantify the main causes of the long-term changes in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution. The results showed that from 2013 to 2020, the population-weighted PM2.5 concentration in Gansu Province decreased by 34.57%, and the proportion of people exposed to areas with an annual average PM2.5 concentration exceeding 35 μg·m-3 decreased significantly from 72.89% to 11.61%. Moreover, the number of attributable deaths in Gansu Province declined from 12 826 (95%CI: 7 840-17 408) in 2 013 to 9 814 (95%CI: 6 407-13 036) in 2020, indicating a decrease of 23.48%. Attributable deaths from stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infection declined, whereas deaths from ischemic heart disease increased by 12.11%. Notably, individuals aged 60 years and older accounted for more than 80% of all age-related deaths. The number of deaths attributable to PM2.5 in central and eastern Gansu Province was significantly higher than that in the Hexi region, and most regions showed a downward trend. The contribution of the total population, age structure, baseline mortality rate, and PM2.5 concentration to the change in PM2.5-related deaths was -1.26%, 16.16%, -9.84%, and -28.55%, respectively. Overall, population aging and a decrease in PM2.5 concentration were the main factors contributing to the increase and decrease in PM2.5-related deaths, respectively. The active clean air policies in Gansu Province have reduced the health burden caused by PM2.5 pollution, but with the trend of population aging, a significant reduction in PM2.5 concentration will be needed in the future to avoid more attributable deaths.

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