| “双碳”目标下城市形态对碳排放的影响:以长江经济带为例 |
| 摘要点击 992 全文点击 213 投稿时间：2023-07-03 修订日期：2023-08-20 |
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| 中文关键词 “双碳”目标 城市形态 碳排放 空间计量模型 地理探测器 长江经济带 |
| 英文关键词 the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality urban form carbon emission spatial econometric model geodetector the Yangtze River Economic Belt |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 冯新惠 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | fengxinhui@zju.edu.cn | | 李艳 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | liyan522@zju.edu.cn | | 王诗逸 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | | | 余迩 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | | | 杨佳钰 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | | | 吴能君 | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 土地科学与不动产研究所, 杭州 310058 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 明晰城市形态对于碳排放的影响机制,是实现城市碳减排的重要前提.以长江经济带为例,在阐述城市形态对于碳排放作用机制的基础上,利用多源数据定量评估城市形态,并分别采用空间计量模型和地理探测器在全局和分区域尺度评估2005~2020年城市形态对于碳排放的影响.结果表明:①2005~2020年,碳排放量由2365.31 Mt上升至4230.67 Mt,但增速呈逐渐放缓的趋势.其在空间上呈现两极分布格局,高值区主要集中在上海和重庆等核心城市,低值区集中在四川和云南西部地区.②建设用地面积在15年间整体扩张,建设用地人口密度呈下降趋势；城市破碎度不断降低且各市之间差异逐渐缩小；城市形状的平均规则程度有所提升,且各市紧凑度显著增加.③城市规模在全局尺度对碳排放有显著的正向作用,城市破碎度在2005年对碳排放有显著负向效应,但在随后年份负效应减弱,城市紧凑度指标在研究时段内与碳排放呈显著负相关性.④斑块类型面积、斑块密度和有效网格大小对上游城市碳排放的影响最为显著；有效网格大小、平均周长面积比和斑块类型面积在中游城市影响程度较高；有效网格大小、同类邻接百分比和最大斑块指数则是促进下游城市碳减排的关键因素.不同区域城市应当综合考虑各城市形态指标对于碳排放的影响,继而优化其城市形态以推动可持续发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Clarifying the mechanism of influence of urban form on carbon emissions is an important prerequisite for achieving urban carbon emission reduction. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, this study elaborated on the general mechanism of urban form on carbon emissions, used multi-source data to quantitatively evaluate the urban form, and explored the impacts of urban form indicators on carbon emissions from 2005 to 2020 at global and sub-regional scales with the help of spatial econometric models and geodetector, respectively. The results showed that:① The carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased from 2 365.31 Mt to 4 230.67 Mt, but the growth rate gradually decreased. Its spatial distribution pattern was bipolar, with high-value areas mainly distributed in core cities such as Shanghai and Chongqing and low-value areas concentrated in the western regions of Sichuan and Yunnan. ② The area of construction land in the study area expanded over the past 15 years, but the population density of construction land had been decreasing. The degree of urban fragmentation was decreasing, and the difference between cities was also progressively narrowing. The average regularity of urban shape improved, and the compactness increased significantly. ③ All indicators of urban scale had significant positive effects on carbon emissions at the global scale, urban fragmentation had a significant negative effect in 2005, and the effective mesh size (MESH) indicator of urban compactness showed a significant negative correlation with carbon emissions in the study period. ④ Total class area, patch density, and effective mesh size had the most significant impacts on carbon emissions in upstream cities. Effective mesh size, mean perimeter-area ratio, and total class area had higher influences in midstream cities. Effective mesh size, percentage of like adjacencies, and largest patch index were the key factors to promote carbon reduction in downstream cities. Cities in different regions should comprehensively consider the impacts of various urban form indicators on carbon emissions and then optimize their urban form to promote sustainable development. |
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