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未来气候情景下甘南草地土壤有机碳密度的时空预测与分析
摘要点击 770  全文点击 117  投稿时间:2023-07-03  修订日期:2023-08-26
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中文关键词  土壤有机碳密度(SOCD)  CENTURY模型  气候情景  时空分布  趋势分析
英文关键词  soil organic carbon density(SOCD)  CENTURY model  climate scenario  spatiotemporal distribution  trend analysis
作者单位E-mail
李钊 甘肃农业大学理学院, 数量生物学研究中心, 兰州 730070 1265856828@qq.com 
张美玲 甘肃农业大学理学院, 数量生物学研究中心, 兰州 730070 zhangml@gsau.edu.cn 
张锐祺 甘肃农业大学理学院, 数量生物学研究中心, 兰州 730070  
田景 甘肃农业大学理学院, 数量生物学研究中心, 兰州 730070  
王晨 甘肃农业大学理学院, 数量生物学研究中心, 兰州 730070  
中文摘要
      研究草地土壤有机碳密度的时间和空间分布特征,并探究有机碳密度与影响因素之间的关系,对甘南自治州草地生态系统管理和维护具有重要意义,有助于实现“双碳”目标,促进碳汇和减缓气候变化.以甘肃省甘南藏族自治州为研究对象,基于SSP126和SSP585这两种CMIP6未来气候情景数据,运用CENTURY模型模拟预测2023~2100年甘南草地土壤有机碳密度的时空变化,结果表明:①2023~2100年,总有机碳密度、缓性有机碳密度、惰性有机碳密度均呈现下降趋势,活性有机碳密度先波动下降再波动上升.同时,SSP585情景下的总有机碳、活性、缓性和惰性有机碳密度均高于SSP126情景;②Mann-Kendall突变分析表明土壤总有机碳密度之差(Δsomtc)的突变发生在2030年;土壤活性碳密度之差(Δsom1c)的突变发生在2027年;③研究期内,在SSP126情景下,甘南州草地土壤有机碳密度平均值为7 505.69 g·m-2,在SSP585情景下则为7 551.87 g·m-2.甘南州草地土壤有机碳密度整体呈现西部高东部低,变异系数整体比较稳定的特点;④偏相关分析结果表明未来气候情景下,降水与土壤有机碳密度呈正相关,温度与土壤有机碳密度呈显著负相关;⑤Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验结果表明,在两个气候情景下,甘南州的土壤有机碳密度整体呈现下降趋势,其中碌曲县的下降趋势相对最快,迭部县最缓慢.
英文摘要
      To study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon density in grassland and explore the relationship between organic carbon density and influencing factors is of great significance to the management and maintenance of grassland ecosystems in Gannan Autonomous Prefecture, which is conducive to realizing the goal of "double carbon," promoting carbon sink, and mitigating climate change. Taking Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province as the research object, based on data from two CMIP6 future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), the CENTURY model was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial changes in soil organic carbon density in grassland of Gannan during 2023-2100. The main conclusions were as follows:① From 2023 to 2100, total organic carbon density, slow organic carbon density, and inert organic carbon density all showed a downward trend, whereas active organic carbon density fluctuated first and then increased. Meanwhile, the total organic carbon density, active organic carbon density, slow organic carbon density, and inert organic carbon density under the SSP585 scenario were higher than those under the SSP126 scenario. ② Mann-Kendall mutation analysis showed that the abrupt change in the difference of soil total organic carbon density (Δsomtc) occurred in 2030. The abrupt change in the difference of soil active carbon density (Δsom1c) occurred in 2027. ③ During the study period, the average soil organic carbon density of Gannan grassland was 7 505.69 g·m-2 under the SSP126 scenario and 7 551.87 g·m-2 under the SSP585 scenario. Gannan grassland soil organic carbon density was higher in the west and lower in the east, and the coefficient of variation was relatively stable. ④ The results of partial correlation analysis showed that precipitation was positively correlated with soil organic carbon density, whereas temperature was significantly negatively correlated with soil organic carbon density under future climate scenarios. ⑤ The results of the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test showed that under the two climate scenarios, the soil organic carbon density in Gannan showed an overall downward trend, in which Luqu County showed the fastest downward trend and Dibe County showed the slowest.

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