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1990~2020年阿克苏河流域土地利用碳排放时空轨迹与影响因素
摘要点击 619  全文点击 104  投稿时间:2023-05-27  修订日期:2023-08-25
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中文关键词  土地利用碳排放  时空轨迹  空间自相关  随机森林模型  影响因素  时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)
英文关键词  land use carbon emissions  spatial-temporal trajectory  spatial autocorrelation  random forest model  influencing factors  geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR)
作者单位E-mail
韩方红 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830052 
hanfanghong2021@163.com 
高凡 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830052 
gutongfan0202@163.com 
何兵 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830052 
 
曹燕 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830052 
 
姚小晨 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830052 
 
中文摘要
      土地利用变化会导致不同类型碳源和碳汇功能变化,是碳排放的关键来源.从土地利用变化的角度开展阿克苏河流域碳排放及其影响因素研究,对于促进流域山水林田湖草沙冰一体化保护修复、助力碳达峰与碳中和目标实现具有重要意义.基于1990~2020年的4期土地利用数据与同期社会经济数据,测算土地利用碳排放总量,探究土地利用碳排放时空轨迹及其影响因素.结果表明:①1990~2020年,耕地、林地、建设用地和未利用地整体呈增加趋势,草地和水域呈减少态势.土地利用类型空间变化特征主要表现为草地、未利用地转换为耕地;②1990~2020年流域净碳总排放量呈现持续上升趋势,累计增加了14.78×104 t,耕地面积增加是引起流域净碳排放量增长的关键因素;③流域土地利用碳排放量空间上呈中间高四周低的分布格局,净碳排放量显著变化区域主要分布在温宿县南部、阿克苏市、阿瓦提县及阿拉尔市;④人类活动对土地利用碳排放驱动作用最强且其影响由东部向西部逐渐增大,年均气温对土地利用碳排放影响贡献主要集中在阿克苏市东部和阿瓦提县北部,年均降雨量对温宿县北部和阿合奇县西部的抑制作用较强.
英文摘要
      Land use changes lead to changes in the functions of different types of carbon sources and sinks, which are key sources of carbon emissions. The study of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the Aksu River Basin from the perspective of land use change is of great importance for the promotion of integrated protection and restoration of mountains, water, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, sand, and ice in the basin and to help achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on four periods of land use data and socio-economic data from 1990 to 2020, the total carbon emissions from land use were measured, and the spatial and temporal trajectories of carbon emissions and their influencing factors were explored. The results showed that:① from 1990 to 2020, arable land, forest land, construction land, and unused land showed a general increasing trend, whereas grasslands and water areas showed a decreasing trend. The spatial change in land use types was mainly characterized by the conversion of grasslands and unused land into arable land, and 83.58 % of the arable land conversion areas were concentrated in the southwest of Wensu, Aksu, and the northern part of Awat. ② The total net carbon emissions in the basin showed a continuous growth trend from 1990 to 2020, with a cumulative increase of 14.78×104 t. The increase in arable land was a key factor causing an increase in net carbon emissions in the basin. ③ The spatial distribution pattern of land use carbon emissions in the basin was high in the middle and low in the fourth, with significant changes in net carbon emissions mainly in the southern part of Wensu, Aksu, Awat, and Alaer. ④ Human activities had the strongest driving effect on land use carbon emissions, with their effects gradually increasing from east to west. The contribution of average annual temperature to land use carbon emissions was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Aksu and the northern part of Awat, whereas average annual rainfall had a strong inhibitory effect on the northern part of Wensu and the western part of Aheqi.

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