| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的江西省生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测 |
| 摘要点击 3272 全文点击 452 投稿时间：2023-05-27 修订日期：2023-09-03 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 江西省 |
| 英文关键词 land-use changes carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model Jiangxi Province |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素,研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系对优化区域土地利用结构,维持区域碳平衡可提供可靠的数据支撑.以江西省为例,分析1990~2020年土地利用变化,基于PLUS模型,结合自然发展情景、生态优先情景和经济发展情景设置,对2030年江西省土地利用格局进行模拟分析,运用InVEST模型测算1990~2020年及未来不同情景下江西省碳储量变化,利用空间自相关分析探索江西省不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征,并提出相应的政策建议.结果表明:①1990~2020年江西省碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少4.58×107 t.其中,水域和建设用地的面积增加,耕地、林地、草地及未利用地面积减少是导致碳储量减少的主要原因.②2030年江西省陆地生态系统碳储量在自然发展情景、生态优先情景和经济发展情景下分别为2.20×109、2.24×109和2.19×109 t.③3种情景下的碳储量值在空间分布上具有相似性,碳储量高值区域在江西省北部、西北部及西部区域出现集聚,低值区域则在中部区域聚集.研究结果可为江西省未来国土空间规划,提升陆地生态系统碳储量提供数据支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land-use changes are an important factor affecting the change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the relationship between land-use changes and carbon storage provides reliable data support for optimizing regional land-use structure and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, we first analyzed the land-use changes; then simulated the land-use pattern under three scenarios (i.e., natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios) in 2030 based on the PLUS model; and finally estimated the carbon storage change in the past (i.e., 1990-2020) and future periods (i.e., three scenarios in 2030) using the InVEST model, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The results showed:① The carbon storage in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total reduction of 4.58×107 t. The increase in the water bodies and construction land and the decrease in cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land was the major cause. ② The carbon storage under natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were 2.20×109, 2.24×109 and 2.19×109 t, respectively. ③ The carbon storage under the three scenarios showed similar spatial characteristics, wherein the high carbon storage was distributed in northern, northwest, and western regions, and the low carbon storage was distributed near the central region. These results can provide data support for future land spatial planning and improving the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangxi Province. |
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