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基于注意力机制优化的BiLSTM珠江口水质预测模型
摘要点击 788  全文点击 145  投稿时间:2023-06-04  修订日期:2023-09-15
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中文关键词  特征注意力机制  时间注意力机制  BiLSTM模型  LSTM模型  珠江口  水质预测
英文关键词  characteristic attention mechanism  temporal attention mechanism  BiLSTM model  LSTM model  Pearl River estuary  water quality prediction
作者单位E-mail
陈湛峰 广东省生态环境监测中心, 广州 510308 gdhbczf@163.com 
李晓芳 广东省生态环境监测中心, 广州 510308  
中文摘要
      为提高珠江口水质预测精度和稳定性,提出了基于时间和特征双注意力机制优化的BiLSTM水质预测模型,引入特征注意力机制强化模型捕获参数重要特征能力,加入时间注意力机制提高对时间序列相关性信息及水质波动细节信息的挖掘能力.将新模型应用于珠江8个入海口水质预测,开展预测性能试验、泛化能力试验和特征参数扩展性试验.结果表明:①新模型在珠海大桥水质预测取得了较高的预测精度,预测值与实测值的均方根误差RMSE为0.004 1 mg·L-1,决定系数R2为98.3 %.与Multi-BiLSTM、Multi-LSTM、BiLSTM和LSTM对比,表明新模型预测精度最高,验证了模型的精准性.②训练样本数量和预测步数均对模型预测精度产生影响,模型预测精度随着训练样本的增加而提升,海珠大桥断面总磷预测时,240组以上训练样本可获得较高预测精度;增加预测步数,会使模型预测精度迅速下降,预测步数大于5步时无法保障模型预测的可靠性.③将新模型应用于珠江8个入海口不同水质指标预测,预测结果均取得较高精度,模型具有较强的泛化能力;输入对象断面预测指标相关联的上游来水、降雨量等特征参数,能够提高模型预测精度.通过多方面多次试验,结果表明新模型能够较好地满足珠江口水质预测精度、适用性和扩展性要求,为复杂水动力环境水体水质高精度预测进行了新的探索.
英文摘要
      To improve the accuracy and stability of water quality prediction in the Pearl River Estuary, a water quality prediction model was proposed based on BiLSTM improved with an attention mechanism. The feature attention mechanism was introduced to enhance the ability of the model to capture important features, and the temporal attention mechanism was added to improve the mining ability of time series correlation information and water quality fluctuation details. The new model was applied to the water quality prediction of eight estuaries of the Pearl River, and the prediction performance test, generalization ability test, and characteristic parameter expansion test were carried out. The results showed that:① The new model achieved high prediction accuracy in the water quality prediction of the Zhuhaidaqiao section. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the predicted value and the measured value was 0.004 1 mg·L-1, and the coefficient of determination (R2) was 98.3 %. Compared with that of Multi-BiLSTM, Multi-LSTM, BiLSTM, and LSTM, the results showed that the new model had the highest prediction accuracy, which verified the accuracy of the model. ② Both the number of training samples and the number of forecasting steps affected the prediction accuracy of the model, and the prediction accuracy of the model increased with the increase of the training samples. When predicting the total phosphorus of the Zhuhaidaqiao section, more than 240 training samples could obtain higher prediction accuracy. Increasing the number of prediction steps caused the prediction accuracy of the model to decline rapidly, and the reliability of the model prediction could not be guaranteed when the number of prediction steps was greater than 5. ③ When the new model was applied to the prediction of different water quality indexes in eight estuaries of the Pearl River, the prediction results had high precision and the model had strong generalization ability. The input data of upstream water quality, rainfall, and other characteristic parameters associated with the section prediction index of the object could improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Through many tests, the results showed that the new model could meet the requirements of precision, applicability, and expansibility of water quality prediction in the Pearl River Estuary and thus is a new exploration method for high-precision prediction of water quality in complex hydrodynamic environments.

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