| 粤闽浙沿海重点城市道路交通节能减排路径 |
| 摘要点击 2466 全文点击 564 投稿时间：2023-05-29 修订日期：2023-07-21 |
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| 中文关键词 粤闽浙沿海重点城市 长期能源替代规划系统模型（LEAP） 道路交通 节能减排 减排路径 |
| 英文关键词 key coastal cities of Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang long-range energy alternatives planning system model（LEAP） road traffic energy conservation and emission reduction emission reduction path |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 随着社会和经济的高速发展,能源消耗量快速增加,随之而来的污染问题也日益加剧.目前的研究主要集中于单一城市或长三角、珠三角和京津冀等中国三大经济圈的道路交通节能减排,缺乏对东南沿海经济圈的相关研究.粤闽浙三省位于我国东南沿海经济发展的核心地带,在其经济发展的同时不可避免地带来了能耗及排放问题.基于长期能源替代规划系统模型,构建了2015~2035年粤闽浙沿海重点城市道路交通基准情景（BAU）以及现有政策情景（EPS）和改进政策情景（MPS）,其中,EPS和MPS均设置了车辆结构优化情景（VSO）、提高燃油经济性情景（IFE）和年均行驶里程减少情景（RDM）.基于情景模拟,评估在各项政策和措施的作用下,粤闽浙沿海重点城市的道路交通节能减排潜力.结果表明,在一级情景中,改进政策情景对于节约能耗、碳减排以及污染物减排效果最好,相比于基准情景2035年其节能力度达75%,且对CO2、CO、NOx、PM2.5和SO2的排放削减力度分别达68%、59%、66%、70%和64%；在二级情景中,提升燃油经济性的改进情景对于节约能耗（削减30%）效果显著；车辆结构调整的改进情景（削减36%、30%、36%、26%和40%）和年均行驶里程减少的改进情景（削减37%、37%、36%、37%和36%）对于CO2、CO、NOx、PM2.5和SO2减排效果显著. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The rapid development of society and economy has resulted in a substantial increase in energy consumption, consequently exacerbating pollution issues. Current research predominantly focuses on energy-saving and emission reduction in road transportation within individual cities or the three major economic regions of China:the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. However, there is a dearth of studies addressing the southeastern coastal economic region. Located at the heart of China's southeastern coastal economic development, the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang unavoidably face challenges associated with energy consumption and emissions while pursuing economic growth. To address these challenges, this study employed a LEAP model to construct various scenarios for road transportation in the key coastal cities of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang from 2015 to 2035. These scenarios included a baseline scenario (BAU), an existing policy scenario (EPS), and an improved policy scenario (MPS). The MPS and EPS encompassed vehicle structure optimization (VSO), improved fuel economy (IFE), and reduced annual average mileage (RDM). By simulating and evaluating these scenarios, the energy-saving and emission reduction potentials of road transportation in the key coastal cities were assessed. The results indicated that, in the primary scenario, the MPS exhibited the most significant improvements in energy-saving, carbon reduction, and pollutant reduction effects. By 2035, the MPS achieved a remarkable 75% energy-saving rate compared to that in the baseline scenario, accompanied by reductions of 68%, 59%, 66%, 70%, and 64% in CO2, CO, NOx, PM2.5, and SO2 emissions, respectively. In the secondary scenario, the improved scenario of enhancing fuel economy achieved a notable 30% reduction in energy consumption. Additionally, the scenarios involving vehicle structure adjustment (yielding reductions of 36%, 30%, 36%, 26%, and 40%) and annual average mileage reduction (resulting in reductions of 37%, 37%, 36%, 37%, and 36%) demonstrated significant reductions in CO2, CO, NOx, PM2.5, and SO2 emissions. |
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