| 基于LEAP模型的工业园区碳达峰路径：以南京某国家级开发区为例 |
| 摘要点击 1474 全文点击 101 投稿时间：2023-05-05 修订日期：2023-07-06 |
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| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 工业园区 能源消费 碳减排 碳达峰 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model industrial parks energy consumption carbon reduction peak carbon dioxide emissions |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 李慧鹏 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | lihuipengtz@163.com | | 李荔 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | | | 殷茵 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | | | 何文太 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | | | 宿杰 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | | | 赵秋月 | 江苏省环境科学研究院, 江苏省环境工程重点实验室, 南京 210036 | qiuyue.zhao@163.com |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 工业园区是能源消费和碳排放的密集区域,推动工业园区碳达峰对国家早日实现碳达峰目标具有重要意义.以南京某国家级开发区为例,基于LEAP模型,设置基准情景（BAU）、非工业减排（S1）、全行业一般减排（S2）、全行业强化减排（S3）和深度减排（S4）共5类情景,分析各情景下的能源消费需求和CO2排放变化情况,评估各项措施的碳减排贡献,提出园区实现碳达峰目标的政策建议.结果表明,S2、S3和S4情景下能源消费需求和CO2排放量将分别于2035、2030和2028年达到峰值,能源消费需求峰值（以标煤计）分别为26.28、21.66和19.10万t,CO2排放峰值分别为75.35、59.34和53.24万t.工业是研究区域能源消费和碳排放的主要贡献行业,S2、S3和S4情景下工业能源消费和碳排放占比分别于2035年、2030年和2028年达到峰值57.1%、56.0%、53.6%和64.2%、66.2%和62.9%.工业能效提升的碳减排贡献最大,其次为经济增速放缓,交通新能源汽车推广和公共建筑节能的碳减排贡献不显著.综合考虑碳达峰时间和园区碳排放强度考核目标,建议将S3情景作为该园区碳达峰的实施路径.研究建议,碳减排应以工业为重点,以提升能效水平为主,优先从重点行业入手.同时不断提升新能源汽车占比,降低公共建筑能耗水平. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Industrial parks are concentrated areas for energy consumption and carbon emissions. Promoting the carbon peak of industrial parks is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon peak goal as soon as possible. Taking a national development zone in Nanjing as an example,five scenarios were set up based on the LEAP model： a baseline scenario （BAU）,non-industrial carbon reduction scenario （S1）,industrial carbon reduction scenario （S2）,enhanced industrial carbon reduction scenario （S3）,and all-factor carbon reduction scenario （S4）. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions in each scenario were analyzed,and the contributions of various measures for CO2 emission reduction were evaluated. Policy recommendations for achieving carbon peak goals in the industrial park were proposed. The results indicated that energy consumption demand and CO2 emissions will peak in 2035, 2030, and 2028 in the S2, S3, and S4 scenarios. The peak energy consumption was 262.8, 216.6, and 191.0 thousand tons of standard coal equivalent,with peak CO2 emissions reaching 753.5, 593.4,and 532.4 thousand tons,respectively. Industry was the main contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The proportions of industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the S2, S3, and S4 scenarios were predicted to peak at 57.1%, 56.0%, and 53.6% and 64.2%, 66.2%, and 62.9% in 2035,2030,and 2028,respectively. Improving industrial energy efficiency made the greatest contribution to CO2 emissions reduction,followed by a slowdown in economic growth. The contribution of promoting new energy vehicles and energy conservation in public buildings to CO2 emissions reduction was not significant. Considering the carbon peak time and the goal of CO2 emission intensity reduction in the industrial parks,the S3 scenario was recommended as the carbon peak pathway for the industrial park. The research also suggested that carbon reduction should focus on industry,with the first priority given to key industries by improving energy efficiency. Further,an increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and a reduction in the energy consumption of public buildings are also needed. |
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