| 中国主要城市的城市化对局地增温的贡献 |
| 摘要点击 2921 全文点击 1079 投稿时间：2021-09-09 修订日期：2021-10-16 |
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| 中文关键词 城市化 观测减去再分析方法 气候变化 贡献率 城市热岛效应 |
| 英文关键词 urbanization observation minus reanalysis climate change contribution rate urban heat island |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 快速发展的城市化可极大地加剧全球变暖背景下我国局地和区域的增温效应，然而有关不同城市的局地增温效应及其空间分布特征的认识相对薄弱.基于1981~2017年气象观测和ERA-5气候再分析数据，通过城乡对比法（UMR）和观测减去再分析方法（OMR）对比分析了中国92个主要城市的城市化对局地增温的贡献.结果表明，过去37 a，所有城市的气温均呈显著增加态势，且最低温度增速整体上明显高于最高温度，尤其北方城市；OMR和UMR方法所估算的城市化增温效应差异大，UMR方法整体上可能严重低估城市化对气温升高的影响；OMR方法结果表明，大部分城市的城市化对气温升高起促进作用[平均增温趋势和贡献率分别达0.26℃·（10 a）-1和46.7%]，尤其是最低气温；不同区域城市化增温效应差异大，东南地区增温贡献最大，西北地区最低.结果强调了城市化增温效应的极大时空异质性以及不同方法估算结果的巨大差异，未来需加强乡村对比气象站点的建设. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Rapid urbanization can greatly aggravate local and regional warming rates in China under the background of global warming. However, the local warming effects of different cities and their spatial distributions remain poorly understood. Based on the meteorological observations and ERA-5 climate reanalysis data from 1981 to 2017, this study analyzed the contribution of urbanization to local warming in 92 major cities of China using both urban minus rural (UMR) and observation minus reanalysis (OMR) methods. The results showed that the air temperature has increased significantly in all the cities during the past 37 years, and the warming rates were clearly higher for the minimum temperature than those for the maximum temperature, especially in the northern cities. The estimated warming effects of urbanization differed substantially between the OMR and UMR methods, and the UMR method in general may seriously underestimate the impact of urbanization on local warming. The OMR results showed that urbanization in most cities intensified the local warming[with an average warming rate of 0.26℃·(10 a)-1 and contribution rate of 46.7%], especially the minimum temperature. In addition, the warming effects of urbanization varied greatly by geographic region, with the highest in southeast China and the lowest in northwest China. This research emphasizes the great spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the warming effects of urbanization and the large contrasts of the estimated contributions by using different methods. Future efforts should be tailored to the construction of reference meteorological stations in rural areas. |
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