| 我国PM2.5浓度分阶段改善目标情景分析 |
| 摘要点击 3723 全文点击 1231 投稿时间：2018-08-30 修订日期：2018-11-20 |
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| 中文关键词 PM2.5 年均浓度 分阶段目标 情景分析 |
| 英文关键词 PM2.5 annual average concentration milestone scenario analysis |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 分析了部分发达国家、地区PM2.5改善经验和我国74个重点城市2013~2016年PM2.5年均浓度的改善情况，得出不同浓度区间城市所能达到的PM2.5年均浓度降幅，并据此设计了我国城市PM2.5浓度改善情景，通过自下而上的计算方法，测算了全国城市、31个省（区、市）及重点区域的PM2.5浓度分阶段改善目标.结果表明，在2种情景下我国PM2.5年均浓度均将在2025年前实现达标，在2030年下降到30 μg·m-3以下；京津冀及周边地区在2030年实现达标；长三角地区在2025年达标，2030年区域内城市实现全面达标.北京、天津、河北、河南等省（市）基准年PM2.5年均浓度高，在2030年实现达标的压力较大；在重点区域强化情景下，京津冀及周边地区2030年仍有接近40%的城市PM2.5浓度超标，应持续加大重污染地区PM2.5污染防治工作的力度，以推进PM2.5浓度目标的实现. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Reports of decreasing PM2.5 concentrations in some developed countries and regions, as well as the trends of annual average concentrations of PM2.5 in the 74 key cities of China from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed. The cities were categorized based on PM2.5 concentration ranges and the regions where they are located. The average annual declining rates of PM2.5 concentration were calculated for these categories. Based on previous PM2.5 rates, we proposed different scenarios of decreasing PM2.5 concentration in Chinese cities for the future decades. Future PM2.5 concentration was calculated for each of the Chinese cities, and the milestones for 31 provinces and key areas were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in China could meet the national air quality standard by 2025 and drop below 30 μg·m-3 in 2030 under both scenarios. The PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas could meet the standards in 2030, and the Yangtze River Delta area in 2025. It will be difficult for Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Henan to meet the standard in 2030. Even in the scenario where measures were intensified in the key areas, the cities failed to meet the PM2.5 concentration standards. In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the values were close to 40% of the target by 2030. To accelerate the reduction of PM2.5 concentration, extreme efforts will be needed in the highly polluted areas. |
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