| 电动重卡替代柴油重卡的全生命周期碳减排效益分析 |
| 摘要点击 828 全文点击 62 投稿时间：2023-05-13 修订日期：2023-07-18 |
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| 中文关键词 重卡 碳排放因子 动态模型 情景分析 碳排放 全生命周期 |
| 英文关键词 heavy-duty truck carbon emission factor dynamic model scenario analysis carbon emission life cycle |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为精准预测电动重卡替代柴油重卡的全生命周期碳减排效益,以单辆重卡为对象,通过预测2023~2050年的电力和柴油碳排放因子变化特性,耦合两类重卡寿命及生命周期行驶里程,分阶段构建了重卡动态碳排放模型,深入分析了“2050年净零排放（NZE）情景”、“承诺目标（APS）情景”和“既定政策（STEPS）情景”下两类重卡的碳排放足迹,并计算碳减排量和碳减排率.结果表明,电池生产和电池回收是分别导致电动重卡生产阶段和拆解回收阶段碳减排效益不佳的重要因素.电力碳排放因子（以CO2计）每降低1 g·（kW·h）-1,电动重卡全生命周期碳排放可减少1.74 t.3种情景下,两类重卡运行阶段碳排放均占全生命周期碳排放总量的90%以上.碳减排效益由高到低的情景依次为NZE、APS和STEPS,其对应的全生命周期碳减排量分别为1 054.68、1 021.78和1 007.97 t,碳减排率分别为54.38%、52.68%和51.97%. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To accurately predict the life-cycle carbon reduction benefits of replacing a diesel heavy-duty truck with an electric one, taking a single heavy-duty truck as the object, the variation trend in electric and diesel carbon emission factors from 2023 to 2050 were predicted; coupled with the life spans and life-cycle mileage of the two types of heavy-duty trucks, a dynamic carbon emission model for the heavy-duty trucks was constructed in stages. The carbon footprints of the trucks under the "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)", "Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)", and "Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)" were analyzed. In addition, the carbon reduction and carbon reduction rate were calculated. The results showed that battery manufacturing and battery recycling were the main factors to impair the improvement of carbon reduction in the production and recycling stages of electric heavy-duty trucks, respectively. For every 1 g·(kW·h)-1 reduction in the electricity carbon emission factor (CO2), an electric heavy-duty truck could reduce 1.74 t of carbon emissions over its life cycle. Under the three scenarios, the carbon emissions during the operation stage of both types of heavy trucks accounted for more than 90% of the total life-cycle carbon emissions. Carbon reduction benefits from the highest to the lowest were NZE, APS, and STEPS, and their corresponding life-cycle carbon emission reductions were 1054.68, 1021.78, and 1007.97 t, with carbon reduction rates of 54.38%, 52.68%, and 51.97%, respectively. |
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