| 中国省域差异化碳达峰评价方法与应用 |
| 摘要点击 1696 全文点击 309 投稿时间：2023-04-14 修订日期：2023-06-05 |
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| 中文关键词 碳达峰 差异化 达峰压力 碳排放空间分配 碳达峰能力评价 |
| 英文关键词 carbon peaking differentiation peaking pressure carbon emissions spatial allocation evaluation of carbon peaking capacity |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 刘润璞 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | liurunpu21@mails.ucas.ac.cn | | 彭栓 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012
天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300350 | | | 陈玉烁 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | | | 陈民 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | | | 张楠 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | | | Nihed Benani | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012
天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300350 | | | 吕连宏 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | | | 阳平坚 | 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 | yang.pingjian@craes.org.cn |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 推动有条件的地区率先行动是“全国一盘棋”实现双碳目标的必然选项.考虑到中国各省的差异性，研究基于碳排放空间分配测算各省达峰压力，进而从达峰压力、减排现状、经济发展、政策支持和资源禀赋这5个维度构建省域碳达峰能力评价体系，采用熵值法确定指标权重，对中国除香港、澳门、台湾和西藏以外的30个省级行政区进行碳达峰能力综合评价，基于评价结果将各省划分为5个梯队.结果表明：①海南和北京等18地的碳排放空间呈现盈余，河北和山东等8地碳排放空间呈现赤字，另有浙江、安徽、河南和湖北这4地分配所得的碳排放空间与各自实际排放量相当；②发达地区碳达峰能力普遍高于欠发达地区，其中北京和上海等地碳达峰能力尤为突出，江西和贵州等地碳达峰能力提升空间较大.最后，针对不同达峰梯队的省份，因地制宜地提出差异化达峰目标和行动建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Promoting regions with favorable conditions to take the lead in reaching a carbon peak is an inevitable step towards achieving the dual carbon goals under the "nationwide coordinated action" plan. Considering the differences among Chinese provinces, this study measured the peaking pressure of each province based on the spatial distribution of carbon emissions. We then constructed a provincial peaking capacity evaluation system based on five dimensions, namely, peaking pressure, emission reduction status, economic development, policy support, and resource endowment, to comprehensively evaluate the carbon peaking capacity of 30 provincial administrative regions in China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Tibet, using the entropy value method to determine the index weights. The 30 provinces were divided into five peaking tiers according to the evaluation results. The results showed that:① 18 regions, such as Hainan and Beijing, displayed a surplus in carbon emission space; eight regions, including Hebei and Shandong, showed a deficit in carbon emission space; and the carbon emission spaces allocated to Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, and Hubei were comparable to their respective actual emissions. ② Developed regions generally had a higher carbon peaking capacity than that of less developed regions, with Beijing and Shanghai showing outstanding carbon peaking capacity, whereas Jiangxi and Guizhou had more room to improve their capacity. Finally, differentiated peaking targets and priority actions were proposed according to the provinces' different peaking tiers and local conditions. |
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