| 黔中喀斯特地区典型县域碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测：以普定县为例 |
| 摘要点击 1177 全文点击 191 投稿时间：2023-02-28 修订日期：2023-04-21 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 喀斯特 碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 普定县 |
| 英文关键词 land use change karst carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model Puding County |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探析黔中喀斯特地区典型县域碳储量时空演变和未来空间分布趋势，对优化土地生态安全格局，提升区域碳储量，促进城市低碳可持续发展具有重要意义.以黔中喀斯特地区典型县域——普定县为例，耦合PLUS-InVEST模型，基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地预测，反演1973~2020年普定县的土地利用变化与碳储量时空演变特征，并模拟预测2060年不同情景下土地利用空间格局演变及其碳储量变化.结果表明：①1973~2020年普定县碳储量整体增加6.61×105 t，呈上升趋势，空间上呈现出“东和西部上升，中南部下降”的变化特征.②普定县历史时期土地利用变化主要表现为建设用地持续扩张，有林地和灌木林地面积占比波动上升，2060年不同情景下土地利用变化延续了历史时期的变化特征.③2060年普定县在自然演变、生态保护和经济发展情景下碳储量较2020年分别增加2.93×105、5.40×105和1.11×105 t，其中生态保护情景增加最为显著，旱地向灌木林地转移是区域固碳能力增加的主要原因.研究结果可为普定县土地利用管理决策以及减排增汇政策制定提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Regional land use change is the main cause for the change in karst carbon storage. It is important to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in typical counties in central Guizhou’s karst region， such as Puding County， to improve regional carbon storage， optimize land ecological security patterns， and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. The PLUS-InVEST model was coupled， based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction， the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Puding County from 1973 to 2020 were inverted， and the spatial pattern evolution of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in 2060 were simulated and predicted. The results showed： ① from 1973 to 2020， the overall carbon storage in Puding County increased by 6.61×105 t， showing an upward trend. The spatial distribution showed a significant increase in the northeastern and southwestern parts of Puding County and a significant decrease in the south-central parts. The change was due to the increase in carbon storage in dryland to shrubland and forest land and the decrease in carbon storage in areas where paddy fields are converted to construction land. ② The land use change in Puding County in the historical period was mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of construction land and the increased fluctuation of the proportion of forest land and shrub forest land， and the change in land use in different scenarios projected in 2060 retained the change characteristics of the historical period. ③ In 2060， the carbon storage in Puding County under the scenarios of natural evolution， ecological protection， and economic development increased by 2.93×105， 5.40×105， and 1.11×105 t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Of these， the increase in ecological protection scenarios was the most significant， with the transfer of dryland to shrubland being the main reason for the increase in regional carbon sequestration capacity. These results can serve as a scientific reference for land use management decisions and the formulation of emission reduction and sink increase policies in Puding County. The future land use planning of karst areas should be guided by the goal of “carbon neutrality” in 2060， take appropriate ecological protection measures， strictly control the rapid expansion of construction land to paddy fields， optimize the land use structure， and effectively improve the level of regional carbon storage. |
