| 考虑区域特点和车型差异的氢燃料电池汽车全生命周期减碳预测分析 |
| 摘要点击 1182 全文点击 176 投稿时间：2023-03-07 修订日期：2023-04-21 |
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| 中文关键词 氢燃料电池汽车 全生命周期评价 碳排放 不同车型 预测分析 |
| 英文关键词 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles full life cycle assessment carbon emissions different vehicle models predictive analysis |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 发展氢燃料电池汽车是我国实现“双碳”战略的重要路径之一，目前我国多个区域正在推广应用包括乘用车、客车以及重卡在内的氢燃料电池汽车，如何量化研究未来不同车型和不同区域的氢燃料电池汽车减碳潜力成为如今的研究热点之一.基于全生命周期的评价方法，考虑了未来的汽车燃油经济性、电力碳排放因子、氢能碳排放因子和氢燃料电池汽车推广规模及制氢方式的区域差异，量化评价了不同类型的氢燃料电池汽车（FCV）、传统燃油汽车（ICEV）和纯电动汽车（BEV）的全生命周期碳排放量（以CO2当量计），对比分析了氢燃料电池汽车在不同时间及不同区域的减碳潜力，并对百公里氢耗量进行了不确定性分析.结果发现，到2025年氢燃料电池客车的全生命周期碳排放比传统燃油客车降低36.0%，而氢燃料电池重卡相较于传统燃油重卡并没有减碳效益.随着未来我国氢能来源结构的不断优化，到2035年氢燃料电池重卡的全生命周期碳排放比传统燃油重卡降低36.5%，相较于乘用车和客车两种车型，其减碳效益是最明显的.以2035年京津冀示范群为例，随着百公里氢耗量降低20%，FCV乘用车、客车和重卡的减碳规模分别增加了7.29%、9.93%和19.57%.因此建议氢燃料电池汽车推广应短期以客车为主，长期以重卡为主，乘用车推广作为补充.分区域和分阶段推广氢燃料电池汽车更有助于推进我国汽车领域的低碳化进程. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As one of the important paths for China to achieve the "dual carbon" strategy， developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is currently being promoted in various regions across the country， including passenger cars， coaches， and heavy-duty trucks. Quantifying the carbon reduction potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for different vehicle types and regions has become a hot research topic. Using a life cycle assessment method that considers future vehicle fuel economy， power generation carbon emission factors， hydrogen production carbon emission factors， and regional differences in the scale and hydrogen production methods， this study quantitatively evaluated the life cycle carbon emissions of different types of vehicles， including fuel cell vehicles （FCV）， traditional fuel vehicles （ICEV）， and battery electric vehicles （BEV）. We compared and analyzed the carbon reduction potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at different times and in different regions and conducted an uncertainty analysis on hydrogen consumption per hundred kilometers. The results showed that by 2025， the life cycle carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel cell coaches would decrease by 36.0% compared to that of traditional fuel coaches， but the reduction in carbon emissions for hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks was not significant. By 2035， as the hydrogen energy source structure in China continues to improve， the life cycle carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks were predicted to decrease by 36.5% compared to that of traditional fuel heavy-duty trucks. The decarbonization potential was most significant for heavy-duty trucks compared to that of passenger cars and coaches. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei demonstration group as an example in 2035， as the hydrogen consumption per hundred kilometers decreases by 20%， the carbon reduction potential of FCV passenger cars， coaches， and heavy-duty trucks would increase by 7.29%， 9.93%， and 19.57%， respectively. Therefore， it is recommended to prioritize the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell coaches in the short term， heavy-duty trucks in the long term， and passenger cars as a supplement. Promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in different regions and stages will help advance the low-carbon development of the automotive industry in China. |
