| 基于LEAP模型的临港新片区中长期碳排放预测及减排潜力分析 |
| 摘要点击 1305 全文点击 253 投稿时间：2023-01-13 修订日期：2023-04-17 |
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| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 碳排放 边际减排成本 贡献度分析 临港新片区 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model carbon emissions marginal abatement cost contribution analysis Lingang Special Area |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于上海临港新片区现有统计数据，结合其未来社会经济发展、产业结构和技术进步等，构建了LEAP-临港模型，分析了基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下新片区的能源需求和碳排放演化趋势.为增强模型的预测精准度，采用Logistic人口生长模型对临港未来人口数据进行预测，并利用学习曲线模型模拟相关减碳技术的成本发展趋势.同时，构建了碳减排技术的经济性评价模型，通过绘制边际减排成本曲线对典型减碳技术的经济成本及减排潜力进行评估.结果表明，强化低碳情景下，2060年临港新片区一次能源消费中可再生能源占比达69%，电能在终端能源需求中占比达91%；临港新片区可在2030年实现碳达峰，且2060年碳排放量相较基准情景下降94%.就减排贡献度而言，清洁能源替代、产业结构优化和终端能效提升对临港碳减排起到关键作用，中期（至2035年）分别贡献35.1%、27.3%和16.2%的碳减排量，长期（至2060年）分别贡献50.6%、8.75%和7.7%的碳减排量.就具体减碳技术而言，氢能发电、电解水制氢及碳捕获和利用与封存（CCUS）技术对实现净零排放意义重大，但减排成本相对较高.研究成果可为临港及相关地区的低碳绿色发展提供思路和借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the existing statistical data of the Lingang Special Area in Shanghai and considering its future socio-economic development， industrial structure， and technological development， a LEAP-Lingang model was developed to analyze the evolution trends of energy demand and carbon emissions under the baseline scenario， low-carbon scenario， and enhanced low-carbon scenario. To enhance the prediction accuracy of the model， the Logistic population growth model was used to predict future population data， and the learning curve model was used to simulate the cost evolution trend of related carbon reduction technologies. In addition， an economic evaluation model for carbon reduction technologies was developed， and the economic costs and emission reduction potential of typical carbon reduction technologies were evaluated by drawing a marginal emission reduction cost curve. The results showed that under the enhanced low-carbon scenario， the renewable energy accounted for 69% of the primary energy consumption， and the electric energy accounted for 91% of the terminal energy demand in 2060. The Lingang Special Area could achieve carbon peak by 2030， and the carbon emissions in 2060 were predicted to decrease by 94% compared to that in the baseline scenario. In terms of contribution to emission reduction， clean energy substitution， industrial structure optimization， and terminal energy efficiency improvement played a key role in reducing carbon emissions near the port. In the medium term （until 2035）， they were predicted to contribute 35.1%， 27.3%， and 16.2% of carbon emissions， respectively， and in the long term （until 2060）， they should contribute 50.6%， 8.75%， and 7.7% of carbon emissions， respectively. Regarding specific carbon reduction technologies， hydrogen power generation； water electrolysis for hydrogen； and carbon capture， utilization， and storage （CCUS） technology were of great significance for achieving net-zero emissions， but the costs of emission reduction were relatively high. The research results can provide ideas and references for the low-carbon and green development of the Lingang Special Area and related areas. |
