| 大兴安岭林草交错带植被NDVI时空演变及定量归因 |
| 摘要点击 646 全文点击 201 投稿时间：2022-11-16 修订日期：2023-04-12 |
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| 中文关键词 林草交错带 归一化植被指数（NDVI） 时空演变 驱动因子 地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词 forest-steppe ecotone normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） spatiotemporal evolution driving factors GeoDetector |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究植被动态变化并识别其驱动因素对区域生态环境恢复与可持续发展具有重要意义.基于2000~2020年MODIS NDVI数据与同期气象、DEM和土地利用类型等数据,运用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析与Hurst指数法,深入解析大兴安岭林草交错带植被时空变化特征,预测其未来演变规律,并引入地理探测器模型,定量揭示全域及不同自然地理分区尺度下,各探测因子及其交互作用对植被空间分异的影响程度和作用机制.结果表明：①时空演变上,2000~2020年大兴安岭林草交错带NDVI时空异质性明显,时间上以0.002 a-1（P<0.05）的速率波动增长并于2011年发生上升突变；空间上呈“自西南向东北递增”分布格局,21年间NDVI等级转移以“中植被覆盖→中高植被覆盖”为主,植被改善区域面积远大于退化区域面积.②趋势预测上,大兴安岭林草交错带NDVI未来变化趋势主要为持续改善,占比37%,但以弱持续居多.③驱动机制上,风速、蒸发和相对湿度对全域NDVI空间分异的影响最为显著,21年间自然因素的影响呈削减态势,而人为因素的影响愈发增强,在不同植被区、气候区、土壤区和地貌区中,NDVI空间分异的主控驱动因子差异性较大；不同空间尺度下各因子间协同效应均表现为双因子增强或非线性增强关系,较单因子作用有明显提升.研究有助于明晰北方寒区林草交错带生态脆弱成因,为不同环境条件下制定植被资源差异化保护与管理方案提供科学支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| It is of great significance to explore the dynamic variations in vegetation cover and to identify its driving factors for the restoration and sustainable development of the regional ecological environment. Based on MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2020 and contemporaneous meteorological, DEM, land use type, and other data, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation in the Greater Khingan Mountains forest-steppe ecotone were deeply analyzed, and its future evolution pattern was predicted by using the methods of Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Hurst index. At the same time, the influence degree and mechanism of each detection factor and its interaction on vegetation spatial differentiation at the scale of the whole area and different physical geographic divisions were quantitatively revealed by introducing the GeoDetector model. The results showed that:① In terms of spatiotemporal variation, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of NDVI in the Greater Khingan Mountains forest-steppe ecotone was obvious from 2000 to 2020. Temporally, NDVI fluctuated growth at a rate of 0.002 a-1 (P < 0.05) and underwent an upward mutation in 2011. Spatially, NDVI showed a distribution pattern of "increasing from southwest to northeast," and the NDVI grade transfer was mainly "medium vegetation cover→medium-high vegetation cover" during the 21 years, and the area of vegetation improvement was much larger than that of degradation. ② In terms of trend prediction, the future variation trend of NDVI in the Greater Khingan Mountains forest-steppe ecotone was mainly continuous improvement, accounting for 37%, but was mostly weakly sustained. ③ In terms of driving mechanism, the wind speed, evaporation, and relative humidity had the most significant influence on the spatial differentiation of NDVI over the whole area. The influence of natural factors has been decreasing over the past 21 years, whereas the influence of human factors has been increasing, and the main driving factors of NDVI spatial differentiation were quite different in different vegetation, climate, soil, and geomorphic zones. The synergistic effect between each factor at different spatial scales all showed two-factor or non-linear enhancement relationships, which was significantly enhanced compared with the single-factor effect. This study contributes to clarifying the causes of ecological fragility in the forest-steppe ecotone in the northern cold region and provides scientific support for formulating differentiated protection and management plans for vegetation resources under different environmental conditions. |
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