| 大型浅水湖泊磷模型参数不确定性及敏感性分析 |
| 摘要点击 1743 全文点击 575 投稿时间：2019-03-13 修订日期：2019-04-22 |
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| 中文关键词 太湖 普适似然不确定性分析方法(GLUE) 区域敏感性分析方法(RSA) 磷 EFDC模型 沉积成岩 |
| 英文关键词 Lake Taihu generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) regionalized sensitivity analysis (RSA) phosphorus EFDC model diagenesis |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 以太湖作为大型浅水湖泊的代表，以EFDC模型为基础建立关于磷的沉积成岩模型，运用拉丁超立方抽样方法、普适似然不确定性分析方法和区域敏感性分析方法，对成岩模块中与磷迁移转化有关的16个参数进行敏感性分析.结果表明，太湖全湖区磷酸盐和总磷的时间空间分布都极不均匀，成岩模块参数的不确定性在磷酸盐和总磷的模拟方面都存在强烈影响.以上覆水磷酸盐为输出目标，"沉积物-水"界面遭受的风浪扰动在水深相对更浅的湖区更为直接，湖湾区水的流通性较差，利于沉积物中溶解态磷释放.以上覆水总磷为输出目标，湖心区颗粒态磷和溶解态有机磷的质量浓度受成岩模块参数不确定性的影响较大.敏感参数主要是动力特性与和氧相关的两类参数.对于大型浅水湖泊，底泥沉积成岩模块敏感参数的重要性不弱于水动力、水质模块，针对不同水质、底泥分布的水域，模拟磷元素时应注重敏感参数的取值率定. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Lake Taihu was chosen as a typical large shallow lake, and a diagenesis model of phosphorus was established based on environmental fluid dynamic code (EFDC). The uncertainty of the simulation results and the sensitivity of 16 parameters related to phosphorus migration and transformation in the diagenesis model were analyzed using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), and regionalized sensitivity analysis (RSA). The results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of phosphate and total phosphorus in Lake Taihu was extremely uneven. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the diagenesis model had a strong influence on the simulation of phosphate and total phosphorus. For phosphate in the overlying, wind and wave disturbance at the ‘sediment-water’ interface was stronger in shallower water regions. The circulation of water in the bay area, where the dissolved oxygen content was low, was poor, which was conducive to the release of dissolved phosphorus in the sediment. For total phosphorus in the overlying water, the granular phosphorus and dissolved organic phosphorus contents in the central lake area were greatly affected by parameter uncertainties in the diagenesis model. The sensitive parameters mainly consisted of two kinds related to oxygen and dynamic characteristics, respectively. For large shallow lakes, the importance of parameter sensitivity in diagenesis models is no less than for hydrodynamic and water quality models. For large shallow lakes, the calibration of sensitive parameters should, therefore, be given attention when simulating the phosphorus content of areas with complicated water quality and sediment distributions. |
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