| 中国能源消费碳排放的空间化与时空动态 |
| 摘要点击 1861 全文点击 632 投稿时间：2021-12-07 修订日期：2022-03-07 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放 夜间灯光 人口数据 时空变化 遥感数据 |
| 英文关键词 CO2 emissions nighttime light data population data spatio-temporal variations remote-sensing data |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 近年来全球多地遭遇极端天气，给人类社会的生产生活带来极大影响，共同应对全球气候变化已成为国际共识，在此背景下如何通过科学方法摸清二氧化碳排放情况成为响应国家"双碳"战略的重要工作.通过省级尺度的碳排放统计数据，综合夜间灯光数据和人口数据，将碳排放量分配到栅格尺度，并对中国2000、2005、2010、2015和2018年碳排放的时空格局、演变特征及碳排放与经济增长的关联性进行综合分析.结果表明：①从2000~2018年，中国的CO2排放总量持续增长，但增长速率呈现放缓的趋势，碳排放年均增长速率由2000~2010年的9.9%下降至2010~2018年的7.4%.从空间分布来看，无碳排放地区主要分布在西北无人区及东北的林区和山区，低碳排放主要分布在广大的中小城镇地区，高碳排放则集中分布于华北、华中、东部沿海以及西部的省会城市及城市群附近；②碳排放在地级市尺度上存在高值聚集或低值聚集现象，且该聚集现象整体趋于稳定，在2005年之后有所加强；低低集聚区主要分布在西部的连片地区和海南岛，且随着经济社会的发展，低低集聚区开始破碎，规模减小；高高集聚区主要分布在京津冀城市群、太原城市群、长江三角洲城市群和珠江三角洲城市群地区且规模在逐步加强巩固；高低、低高集聚区则主要出现在社会经济发展水平差异较大的邻近城市；③中国大部分地区的碳排放量相对稳定，碳排放发生较大变化的地区主要分布在省会城市和重点城市的外围地区，即存在中心城区碳排放无变化，外围区域碳排放变化的圈层结构；④在2000~2018年中国城市发展进程中，整体上遵循一个由"低排放-低收入"转向"高排放-低收入"再转向"高排放-高收入"最终转向"低排放-高收入"的发展规律.从整体来看，中国碳排放的增速在放缓，在实行"双碳"战略的大背景下，各地区由于不同的社会经济发展情况和能源需求情况所面临的碳减排任务与压力也不尽相同，因而应分地区和分行业实施差异化的碳减排政策. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The adverse effects of global climate change on human production and life are becoming increasingly prominent. Responding to climate change has become a severe challenge faced by human society, and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions has gradually become a common action by all countries. Therefore, analyzing carbon emissions through scientific methods has become an important foundation for responding to the national "dual carbon" strategy. This study used provincial-level carbon emission statistics, combined with nighttime light data and population data, and assigned carbon emissions to the grid scale. It also analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in China in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018, as well as the correlation between carbon emissions and the economy. The results showed that:① from 2000 to 2018, the total CO2 emissions in China continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed over time. The average annual growth rate of carbon emissions dropped from 9.9% in 2000-2010 to 7.4% in 2010-2018. From the perspective of spatial distribution, carbon-free areas were mainly distributed in the northwest uninhabited area and northeast forest and mountainous areas, low-carbon emissions were mainly distributed in the vast small and medium-sized cities and towns, and high-carbon emissions were concentrated in northern, central, eastern coastal, and western provincial capitals and urban agglomerations. ② Carbon emissions had high-value or low-value agglomerations at prefecture-level cities; this agglomeration tended to stabilize as a whole and had strengthened after 2005. Low-low agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the western contiguous areas and Hainan Island. With economic and social development, low-low agglomeration areas began to fragment and reduce in size; high-high agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, Taiyuan urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations, and the scale was gradually strengthened and consolidated; high-low and low-high agglomeration areas mainly appeared in neighboring cities with large differences in economic development levels. ③ Carbon emissions in most parts of China were relatively stable. The areas where carbon emissions had changed were mainly distributed in the peripheral areas of provincial capitals and key cities, and there was a circle structure with no changes in the central urban area and changes in carbon emissions in the peripheral areas. ④ The overall process of urban development in China from 2000 to 2018 followed a shift from "low emission-low income" to "high emission-low income" to "high emission-high income" and finally to "low emission-high income." The growth rate of carbon emissions in China is slowing down. Under the background of the "dual carbon" strategy, different regions face different carbon emission reduction tasks and pressures due to different carbon emission situations. Therefore, the differentiated carbon emissions policy should be implemented by regions and industries. |
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