| 2015~2018年我国PM2.5健康损害价值的动态评估 |
| 摘要点击 2569 全文点击 863 投稿时间：2020-04-13 修订日期：2020-06-09 |
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| 中文关键词 PM2.5 健康损害 动态价值评估 6大区域 中国 |
| 英文关键词 PM2.5 health damage dynamic value assessment six regions China |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为了定量评估我国空气污染治理产生环境健康效益的动态变化，本文运用2015~2018年的全国297个地级及以上城市数据，估算PM2.5污染造成的健康效应与健康经济损失变化，并分区域分城市对比分析.结果表明，由于ρ（PM2.5）大幅下降，2015~2018年全国暴露于ρ（PM2.5）超标地区人口逐年下降，占总人口的比重从80.88%下降至62.32%.各类健康终点总人数从3323.25万人下降到1591.45万人，健康经济损失从15790.39亿元下降到8384.16亿元，健康经济损失占GDP比重从2.31%下降到0.99%.6大区域中京津冀及周边地区、成渝地区的各类指标逐年下降，汾渭平原地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区和长江中游地区的各类指标呈现部分年份上升，随后下降的复杂趋势.但是汾渭平原地区的情况仍比其它地区严重，2018年的各类健康终点总人数比2015年增加1.89万人，健康经济损失增加107.14亿元，人均健康经济损失增加182.67元.保定、邢台和邯郸等市各指标值虽逐年下降，但每年仍居所有城市前10，西安、咸阳和临汾等市2018年的指标值不及2015年乐观.结果显示，我国空气污染治理产生的环境健康效益总体显著，但仍需进一步加强区域联防联控与一市一策. |
| 英文摘要 |
| With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, there are many environmental problems especially air pollution, which has serious impacts on the sustainable development of economy, ecological environment and public health. Since 2013, a series of environmental protection laws and regulations, and industrial and energy policies have been successively implemented, including Action Plan for Air Pollution Control, and Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War etc. The air quality of the whole country has been improved. In order to evaluate the dynamic changes of environmental health benefits from air pollution control in China, this paper estimates the health effects and health economic losses caused by PM2.5 pollution, and makes a comparative analysis among different regions and cities based on the data of 297 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2015 to 2018. The results show that, due to sharp decline of ρ(PM2.5), the population exposed to ρ(PM2.5)>35 μg·m-3 decreased year by year, and the proportion of the total population decreased from 80.88% to 62.32%. The total number of all kinds of health endpoints decreased from 33.23 million to 15.91 million, health economic loss decreased from 1579.04 billion yuan to 838.42 billion yuan, the proportion of healthy economic loss in GDP dropped from 2.31% to 0.99%. Among the six regions, the index values of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas, and Chengyu areas have declined year by year. However, Fenwei Plain areas, Yangtze River Delta areas, Pearl River Delta areas, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River show a complex trend of increasing in some years and decreasing later. However, the situation of Fenwei Plain is still more serious than other areas, and the ρ(PM2.5) is next to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. ρ(PM2.5) of all 11 cities still exceed 35 μg·m-3 in 2018. Compared with 2015, the number of early deaths decreased by 1500, but the total number of all kinds of health endpoints increased by 18900. The health economic loss is 80.711 billion yuan, an increase of 10.714 billion yuan than that in 2015. The proportion of health economic loss in GDP is 3.16%, which is 0.25% lower than that in 2015. The per capita health economic loss is 182.67 yuan higher than that in 2015. In terms of cities, from 2015 to 2018, ρ(PM2.5) in 228 cities decreased with varying degrees. Among which, Dezhou and Baoding dropped the most, only 10 cities saw ρ(PM2.5) rise. 14 cities saw an increase in the number of healthy endpoints, and 11 cities saw an increase in the proportion of healthy economic loss to GDP. Although the index values of Baoding, Xingtai, Handan, and other cities have declined year by year, they still rank top 10 every year. The index value of Xi'an, Xianyang, Linfen, and other cities in 2018 is more than that in 2015. The research shows that the environmental health benefits of air pollution control are significant in China, but it is still necessary to further strengthen regional joint prevention and control, as well as one city one policy. |
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