| 华北地区大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)年际变化及其对土地利用/覆被变化的响应 |
| 摘要点击 2092 全文点击 878 投稿时间：2019-11-11 修订日期：2020-01-30 |
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| 中文关键词 大气细颗粒物(PM2.5) 土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC) 热点分析 地理加权回归(GWR) 空间响应 |
| 英文关键词 fine particulate matter (PM2.5) land use and land cover change (LUCC) hot spot analysis geographically weighted regression model (GWR) spatial response |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 大气细颗粒物（PM2.5）是大气污染的重要组成成分，对其影响因素进度探讨具有重要的意义.但目前来看，多数的研究都聚焦于PM2.5与气象要素以及经济因素之间的关系，分析土地利用/覆被变化对PM2.5影响的研究相对较少，需要进一步的深入探讨.基于PM2.5空间分布数据及土地利用/覆被数据，对华北地区PM2.5变化特征及土地利用/覆被变化特征进行了系统分析，并利用地理加权回归、GIS空间分析等手段探讨了PM2.5变化与土地利用/覆被变化的响应关系，结果表明：①华北地区PM2.5浓度整体呈现东南高、西北低的空间格局，且18a均保持这一态势没有变化.时间上来看，在2006年达到污染最大值，之后虽有波动但一直居高不下.多数城市PM2.5浓度超标，整体环境污染形势严峻；②2000~2015年研究区土地利用类型/覆被以耕地、林地和草地为主，土地利用/覆被变化趋势主要表现为耕地的大量减少以及建设用地的持续增加，水域和未利用地面积略有减少，林地和草地转入转出面积接近，因而总量变化不大；③地理加权回归模型计算结果表明，Local R2（衡量局部拟合度）较低的区域为土地利用/覆被未发生变化的区域，而在土地利用/覆被变化明显的区域，Local R2较高，说明PM2.5变化对土地利用/覆被变化有着显著的响应作用；④对于不同土地利用/覆被状况而言，PM2.5分布特征表现出建设用地 > 耕地 > 水域 > 草地 > 林地 > 未利用地的趋势.对于不同土地利用/覆被转换方式而言，当自然用地向人工用地转换时PM2.5浓度上升，而人工用地向自然用地转变时PM2.5浓度降低. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is an important component of air pollution, and thus it is meaningful to analyze its influencing factors. According to existing literature, most studies to date have focused on the relationship between PM2.5 and meteorological or economic factors, whereas fewer have analyzed the relationship between PM2.5 and land use and land cover change (LUCC). This study employed spatial distribution data of PM2.5 and land use and land cover data to analyze the relationship between dynamic characteristics of PM2.5 and LUCC. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and spatial analysis tools based on ArcGIS were used to analyze the relationship between PM2.5 dynamic characteristics and LUCC. North China was selected as the study area, and the results showed that ① The spatial pattern of PM2.5 in North China was high in the southeast and low in the northwest for 18 years. From a time perspective, the PM2.5 reached its maximum value in 2006 and has maintained a high value since then. The PM2.5 exceeded the permissible standard in most of the cities, with serious environmental pollution generally. ② The main land use and land cover types in North China from 2000 to 2015 were cropland, woodland, and grassland, and the land use and land cover change showed a trend of great decline in cropland and a great increase in construction land. ③ The results of the GWR model showed that local R2 is low in non-LUCC areas and high in LUCC areas, and the PM2.5 dynamic characteristics have a significant response to LUCC. ④ For different land use and land cover types, the distribution of PM2.5 showed a trend of construction land > cropland > water area > grassland > woodland > unused land, for different types of LUCC. PM2.5 concentration increased when natural land changed to artificial land and decreased when artificial land changed to natural land. |
