| 《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的环境健康效果评估 |
| 摘要点击 4141 全文点击 1619 投稿时间：2018-11-16 修订日期：2019-01-09 |
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| 中文关键词 PM2.5 BenMAP模型 大气十条 健康效益 过早死亡 |
| 英文关键词 PM2.5 BenMAP air pollution prevention and control action plan health benefit premature death |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 武卫玲 | 生态环境部环境规划院, 区域空气质量模型与管控研究中心, 北京 100012 | wuwl@caep.org.cn | | 薛文博 | 生态环境部环境规划院, 区域空气质量模型与管控研究中心, 北京 100012 | | | 王燕丽 | 生态环境部环境规划院, 区域空气质量模型与管控研究中心, 北京 100012 | | | 雷宇 | 生态环境部环境规划院, 区域空气质量模型与管控研究中心, 北京 100012 | leiyu@caep.org.cn | | 冯涛 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司防灾减灾中心, 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室, 长沙 410129 | | | 蔡泽林 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司防灾减灾中心, 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室, 长沙 410129 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为了定量评估《大气十条》实施带来的环境健康效益，本文首先依据PM2.5浓度和人口数据，分析2013~2017年全国人口加权浓度的变化，其次利用BenMAP模型对全国338个地级及以上城市2013年PM2.5基准情景和2017年PM2.5控制情景进行分析，定量分析全国31个省（市）及338个地级及以上城市减少过早死亡人数.结果表明，由于PM2.5浓度大幅下降，2013~2017年全国PM2.5人口加权浓度呈逐年下降趋势；北京、天津、河北等京津冀及周边地区减少过早死亡人数最多.2017年全国280个城市避免过早死亡人数有所增加，58个城市避免过早死亡人数有所下降.以WHO过渡期第1阶段目标值（PM2.5年均浓度为35 μg·m-3）作为控制情景，估算2013年全国过早死亡人数约为101293人，2017年约为41080人，《大气十条》的实施大约避免60213人过早死亡.依据支付意愿法调查结果，估算增加的健康效益约为549.7亿元. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To quantitatively assess the health benefits brought by the implementation of the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, we firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of PM2.5 population-weighted concentrations over China from 2013 to 2017. The BenMAP model was used to analyze the differences in premature death between the PM2.5 baseline scenario in 2013 and the control scenario in 2017 in 338 prefecture-level cities nationwide, so as to quantitatively analyze the number of premature deaths in 31 provinces. The results show that compared with other provinces, the largest reduction in premature deaths due to the significant decrease of PM2.5 concentration occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding regions, and the environmental health benefits from air quality have been greatly improved. The results show that from 2013 to 2017 the population weighted PM2.5 concentration was decreasing year by year due to the significant decrease in PM2.5 concentration; Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and the surrounding areas witnessed the largest reduction in premature deaths. In 2017, the number of avoided premature deaths in 280 prefecture-level cities nationwide increased, but declined in 58 cities. Taking the target value of the first phase of the WHO transition period (an annual average PM2.5 concentration of 35 μg·m-3) as the control scenario, it is estimated that the number of premature deaths in 2013 was approximately 101293, and in 2017 was approximately 41080. The implementation of the Action Plan helped to avoid approximately 60213 premature deaths. According to the method of ‘willingness to pay’, the monetary benefits are estimated to be approximately 54.97 billion yuan. |
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