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京津冀地区黄标车政策的总量减排效益评估
摘要点击 284  全文点击 86  投稿时间:2017-09-23  修订日期:2017-12-15
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中文关键词  减排效益  黄标车  提前淘汰补贴政策  禁行政策  京津冀
英文关键词  emission reduction benefit  yellow-label vehicle  the early elimination subsidy policy  the traffic restriction policy  Jing-jin-ji Region
作者单位E-mail
卢亚灵 环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012
天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300072 
luyl@caep.org.cn 
周佳 南京大学环境学院, 南京 210023  
程曦 环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012  
张伟 环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012
南京大学环境学院, 南京 210023 
 
蒋洪强 环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012 jianghq@caep.org.cn 
中文摘要
      为评估黄标车提前淘汰补贴和禁行政策的实施效果,并对这两种政策进行比较,在梳理京津冀地区相关政策措施的基础上,采用排放因子法评估其总量减排效益.结果表明:①京津冀地区黄标车淘汰政策有较好的减排效益,政策实施以来CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、PM10累计减排量分别为500.32、39.79、31.82、0.96、1.06万t.②黄标车政策减排效益最突出的污染物为CO、HC、NOx,为大气污染总量减排作出较大贡献.③小型载客与轻型载货汽油车是CO与HC的减排主体,重型载货柴油车是NOx和颗粒物的主要减排贡献车型.④京津冀13个城市,道路密集的城区减排更明显.北京市、天津市、石家庄市CO、HC减排较其他城市更显著,天津市、石家庄市、唐山市、邯郸市NOx和颗粒物减排更显著.⑤提前淘汰补贴和禁行两个政策相比,前者减排效益具有时间延续性,在政策实施后几年效益仍较明显;后者在政策实施前期减排效益明显,随时间而衰减.各地在制定黄标车与老旧机动车政策时,建议前期加强禁行政策、后期加强淘汰补贴政策执行力度.
英文摘要
      In order to evaluate policy implementation for yellow-label vehicles (namely, those that fail to meet the Chinese No.1 standard for exhaust emissions), and to compare the policy of an early elimination subsidy with traffic restrictions of these vehicles, the emission factor method was adopted to calculate the emission reduction resulting from the two policies in the Jing-jin-ji Region. The results showed that: ① The policies led to good emission reductions for the Jing-jin-ji Region. Since the implementation of the policies, the cumulative reductions of CO, HC, NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 have been 5003.2 kt, 397.9 kt, 318.2 kt, 9.6 kt, and 10.6 kt, respectively. ② The pollutants reduced most prominently were CO, HC, and NOx, which contributed greatly to the emission reductions and air pollution control. ③ The main motorcycle types for the CO and HC emission reductions were small gasoline-powered passenger vehicles and light duty gasoline-powered vehicles. Heavy duty diesel cars contributed the most to the emission reduction of NOx and particulate matters. ④ The emission reductions for CO, HC, and NOx were greater in densely populated urban areas in the Jing-jin-ji Region. The emission reductions of CO and HC in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang were more obvious than in other cities, and the emission reductions of NOx and particulate matters were more obvious in Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, and Handan. ⑤ Comparing the two policies of an early elimination subsidy and traffic restriction, the emission reduction of the former policy is continuous for a few years, and the effectiveness of reduction is significant in several years. However, the effectiveness of the latter policy decreases with time.

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