| 双视角下中国畜牧业甲烷排放的温室效应 |
| 摘要点击 921 全文点击 278 投稿时间：2022-12-29 修订日期：2023-03-01 |
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| 中文关键词 甲烷(CH4) 温室气体 养殖业 全球增温潜势(GWP) GWP-star (GWP*) 短寿命气候污染物(SLCPs) |
| 英文关键词 methane(CH4) greenhouse gas animal husbandry global warming potential(GWP) GWP-star(GWP*) short-lived climate pollutants(SLCPs) |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 准确评价甲烷（CH4）的温室效应是制定有效减排路径的基础.首次采用新提出的、针对短寿命气候污染物（SLCP）设计的气候指标GWP-star （GWP*）对中国畜牧业CH4排放的温室效应进行定量评价，并与常用的GWP指标评价结果相比较.结果表明，GWP的视角下我国畜牧业CH4排放的温室效应持续增加.因此，畜牧业实现碳中和需要完全消除排放，或以增加碳汇、增加资源化利用的形式抵消每年稳定的CH4排放.在GWP*的视角下，2015~2019年间畜牧业CH4排放的温室效应较20年前有所减少，降低的热量相当于从20年前的大气中减少2.1×104万t CO2的热量，畜牧业只需每年有效降低0.3%的CH4排放则可在短期内实现自身碳中和.在中国畜牧业持续采取有效减排措施的情况下，采用GWP*的标准制定减排目标比用GWP制定的减排目标更早达到，但选择GWP还是GWP*需要综合考虑评价的目的、评价的时间尺度和实际可操作性. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Accurate quantitative evaluation of the greenhouse effects of methane(CH4) is the foundation for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study was the first to quantitatively evaluate the warming effects of the CH4 emissions from animal husbandry in China using the recently proposed climate metric GWP-star(GWP*), which is designed for short-lived climate pollutants(SLCP), and to compare the results with the commonly used climate metric global warming potential(GWP). The results showed:CH4emissions from animal husbandry in China decreased from 957.0×105 t in 2000 to 764.0×105 t. The GWP results showed that the greenhouse effect of CH4 emissions from animal husbandry in China was increasing between 2015 and 2019, and the GWP* results showed that it decreased compared to that 20 years ago. The amount of reduction was equivalent to removing the warming of 2.1×108 t of carbon dioxide. Under the GWP evaluation system, achieving carbon neutrality in the livestock industry in China requires eliminating or offsetting stable annual CH4 emissions from increased carbon sinks. Instead, under the GWP* evaluation system, China's livestock industry could achieve its carbon neutrality in the short term by effectively reducing CH4 emissions by only 0.3% per year. In the case that the livestock industry in China continues to take effective emission reduction measures, the reduction target under the GWP* metric will be reached earlier than that under GWP. Still, the choice of GWP or GWP* requires careful consideration of the objectives of evaluation, the time scale of assessment, and practical operability. |
