| 基于脱钩指数的工业园区碳排放与经济发展关系 |
| 摘要点击 1390 全文点击 463 投稿时间：2022-11-01 修订日期：2023-01-21 |
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| 中文关键词 工业园区 碳排放 脱钩 Tapio模型 对数平均迪式指数分解法(LMDI) "双碳"目标 |
| 英文关键词 industrial park carbon emission decoupling Tapio model logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 工业园区是工业活动的主要载体，也是碳排放的重点区域.为深入探究工业园区碳排放与经济发展的脱钩情况及其驱动力，以郑州经济技术开发区（郑州经开区）为例，运用IPCC碳排放核算方法、Tapio脱钩模型和对数平均迪式指数分解法对园区能源消费碳排放的特征、碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系和脱钩驱动因素进行分析.结果表明：①从碳排放特征看，郑州经开区能源消费碳排放以间接碳排放为主，碳排放总量呈现前期快速增长，中期增长减缓，后期负增长的趋势，碳排放强度逐年下降；②从脱钩情况看，2011~2016年郑州经开区碳排放总量与经济发展间的脱钩指数为1.021，处于增长连结状态，2016~2020年脱钩指数下降至0.089，转变为弱脱钩状态；③从驱动因素分析，2011~2016年能源碳排放系数、能源强度、产业结构和经济规模4个因素对郑州经开区碳排放脱钩均有抑制作用，2016~2020年除经济规模外均转为促进作用.研究显示，郑州经开区碳排放脱钩因素中，经济规模起主要抑制作用，能源效率起主要促进作用.研究成果可为以郑州经开区为代表的产城融合型工业园区制定相应碳减排政策和实现"双碳"目标提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Industrial parks are the main carriers of industrial activities and are also key areas for carbon emissions. To deeply explore the decoupling state of carbon emissions and economic development of industrial parks and the driving forces, Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone were taken as example, based on the energy consumption data of industrial enterprises above a designated size from 2011 to 2020, the IPCC carbon emission accounting method, Tapio decoupling model, and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method were used to analyze the characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the park, the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development, and the driving factors of decoupling. The results showed that:① in terms of carbon emission characteristics, the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone were mainly indirect carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions showed a trend of rapid growth in the early stage, slowing down in the medium term, and negative growth in the later stage. The carbon emission intensity was decreasing annually. ② From the perspective of decoupling, the decoupling index between total carbon emissions and economic development in Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone from 2011 to 2016 was 1.021, which was in a state of growth linkage, and the decoupling index decreased to 0.089 from 2016 to 2020, turning into a weak decoupling state. ③ From the analysis of driving factors, from 2011 to 2016, four factors, namely carbon emission coefficient, energy efficiency, industrial structure, and economic level, all had a restraining effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone, and from 2016 to 2020, they all turned into promotion except for the economic level. This study showed that among the factors for the decoupling of carbon emissions in the Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone, the economic level played a major inhibitory role, and energy efficiency played a major role in promoting it. The results of this study can provide a reference for the industry-city integrated industrial park represented by Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone to formulate corresponding carbon emission reduction policies and achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. |
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