| 2016~2020年成都市控制PM2.5和O3-8h污染的健康效益评价 |
| 摘要点击 1614 全文点击 934 投稿时间：2022-07-05 修订日期：2022-08-20 |
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| 中文关键词 细颗物(PM2.5) 臭氧最大8h滑动平均(O3-8h) 成都 健康效益 经济损失 |
| 英文关键词 particulate matter with aerodynamics less than 2.5 (PM2.5) daily ozone 8 h maximum concentration (O3-8h) Chengdu health benefits economic loss |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 张莹 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225
中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029 | zhangying@cuit.edu.cn | | 田琪琪 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 | | | 魏晓钰 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 | | | 张少波 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 | | | 胡文东 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 | | | 李明刚 | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 细颗物(PM2.5)和臭氧是我国主要的大气污染物,严重危害人群健康.为评估成都市大气污染防治行动实施期间PM2.5和臭氧对人群健康的影响,首先,利用流行病学中的广义相加模型和非线性分布滞后模型估算了2014~2016年成都市PM2.5和臭氧最大8 h滑动平均(O3-8h)浓度变化对居民疾病死亡影响的暴露-反应关系系数(β),在此基础上,采用环境风险和环境价值评估法估算2016~2020年成都市PM2.5和O3-8h浓度暴露水平变化的健康收益.结果表明:①2016~2020年成都市的ρ(PM2.5)年均值呈逐年下降趋势,从63 μg·m-3降至40.92 μg·m-3,年均下降率约为10.14%;与之相反,ρ(O3-8h)年均值从155 μg·m-3升至169 μg·m-3,年均增长率约为2.23%.②成都市PM2.5对全因、心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病早逝人数影响的暴露-反应关系系数β分别为0.0003600、0.0005001和0.0009237;O3-8h对应的β分别为0.0003103、0.0006726和0.0007002.③假设ρ(PM2.5)年均值削减至国家二级标准限值后(35 μg·m-3),带来的健康受益人数和经济效益呈逐年下降趋势,可避免的全因、心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病早逝人数分别从2016年的1128、416、328例降至2020年的229、96和54例.近5年可避免的全因早逝人数共计3314例,对应的健康经济效益为76.60亿元.④假设ρ(O3-8h)年均值削减至世界卫生组织规定的浓度限值(70 μg·m-3),带来的健康受益人数和经济效益呈上升态势,可避免的全因、心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病早逝人数分别从2016年的1919、779和606例升至2020年的2429、1157和635例.可避免的全因和心脑血管疾病早逝年均增长率分别为6.85%和10.72%,高于O3-8h浓度年均上升率.近5年可避免的全因早逝人数为10790例,对应的健康经济效益为266.20亿元.成都市细颗粒物治理成效显著,但臭氧污染凸显,臭氧已经成为危害成都市居民健康不可忽视的大气污染物,加强PM2.5和O3协同治理刻不容缓. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Both particulate matter with aerodynamics of less than 2.5 (PM2.5) and ozone are the two main air pollutants in China, which seriously endanger human health. To estimate the adverse impacts of PM2.5 and ozone on human health during the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in Chengdu, both the generalized additive model and the nonlinear distribution lag model of epidemiology were adopted to explore the exposure-response relationship coefficients β of daily ozone 8h maximum concentration average (O3-8h), as well as that of PM2.5 on disease deaths in Chengdu from 2014 to 2016. On this basis, the environmental risk model and environmental value assessment model were both adopted to evaluate the health effects and health benefits in Chengdu from 2016 to 2020, respectively, with the assumption that PM2.5 and O3-8h concentration were reduced to specified air pollution control limits (35 μg·m-3 and 70 μg·m-3, respectively). The results showed ① the annual concentration of PM2.5 presented gradually decreasing trends in Chengdu from 2016 to 2020. Specifically, ρ(PM2.5) from 63 μg·m-3 in 2016 decreased to 40.92 μg·m-3 in 2020. The average annual decline rate was approximately 9.8%. In contrast, the annual concentration of O3-8h from 155 μg·m-3 in 2016 increased to 169 μg·m-3 in 2020, and the increasing rate was approximately 2.4%. ② Both PM2.5 and O3-8h had lag effects on three types of disease deaths. Under the maximum lag effect, the corresponding exposure-response relationship coefficients β of PM2.5were 0.0003600, 0.0005001, and 0.0009237 for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory premature deaths, respectively, whereas the corresponding β of O3-8h were 0.0003103, 0.0006726, and 0.0007002, respectively. ③ If ρ(PM2.5) was reduced to the national secondary standard limit (35 μg·m-3), the corresponding number of health beneficiaries and economic benefits declined yearly. Specifically, the health beneficiary number of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease deaths were reduced from 1128, 416, and 328 in 2016 to 229, 96, and 54 in 2020, respectively. There were a total number of 3314 avoidable premature deaths for all-cause diseases during the five years, resulting in a total health economic benefit of 7.66 billion yuan. ④ If we assume that ρ(O3-8h) was reduced to the concentration limit specified by the World Health Organization (70 μg·m-3), the corresponding number of health beneficiaries and economic benefits were increasing yearly. Specifically, the health beneficiaries' numbers of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease deaths rose from 1919, 779, and 606 in 2016 to 2429, 1157, and 635 in 2020, respectively. The annual average growth rates of avoidable all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 6.85% and 10.72%, respectively, which was higher than the annual average rise rate of ρ(O3-8h). There were 10790 total avoidable deaths from all-cause diseases during the five years, resulting in a total health economic benefit of 26.62 billion yuan. These findings indicate that PM2.5 pollution in Chengdu had been well controlled, whereas O3 pollution had become more severe and had become another key air pollutant threatening human health. Therefore, the synchronous control of PM2.5 and ozone should be implemented in the future. |
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