| 三重属性的承载力约束下中国水资源利用效率动态演进特征分析 |
| 摘要点击 1910 全文点击 640 投稿时间：2021-03-19 修订日期：2021-05-13 |
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| 中文关键词 水资源利用效率 水资源承载力 SFA效率测算模型 动态演进 Kernel密度估计 Markov链 |
| 英文关键词 water utilization efficiency water resources capacity SFA efficiency calculation model dynamic evolution Kernel density estimation Markov chain |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于水资源"资源禀赋-社会经济-生态环境"三重属性约束建立承载力测算模型，创新性地将水资源承载力作为投入要素，构建SFA效率测算模型，运用2003~2017年中国31个省份面板数据，应用Kernel密度估计和Markov链对水资源使用效率的动态演进特征进行分析.结果表明：①中国大部分省份水资源承载力在稳步提升，西北、华北、东北和华中地区呈较低水平，西南、华南等地区呈较高水平；②中国所有省份水资源利用效率均保持稳定增长，西部地区比中、东部地区增长幅度更大，整体呈现东高西低，南高北低的空间态势；③中国水资源利用效率动态演进存在多极化和趋同化现象，部分省份存在梯度效应，同时具有俱乐部收敛特征，流动性差，马太效应凸显.为实现水资源、社会和环境的协调耦合，降低区域间资源使用效率差异，提升水资源利用效率，提出需要充分考虑水资源承载力，统筹全国及区域水资源供需协调发展战略，构建水权交易市场等建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the triple attribute constraints of "resource endowment, social economy, and ecological environment," this paper establishes the calculation model of water resource carrying capacity, creatively takes water resource carrying capacity as an input factor, constructs an SFA efficiency calculation model, and analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of water resource utilization efficiency by using panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017, using Kernel density estimation and Markov chain methods. The results show that:① the water resources carrying capacity of most provinces in China was steadily increasing; Northwest China, North China, Northeast China, and central China were at a low level, and Southwest and South China were at a higher level; ② the water resources utilization efficiency of all provinces in China had maintained a stable growth, and the growth rate of the western region was larger than that of the central and eastern regions; ③ the dynamic evolution of China's water resources utilization efficiency had the phenomenon of multi-polarization and convergence, and some provinces had a gradient effect, which had club convergence characteristics, poor liquidity, and a prominent Matthew effect. In order to realize the coordination and coupling of water resources, society, and the environment; reduce the difference in utilization efficiency between regions; and improve the efficiency of water resources utilization, this paper provides suggestions to fully consider the water resource carrying capacity, coordinate the development strategy of water resource supply and demand in the whole country and region, and construct a water rights trading market. |
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